Wisconsin passes 3,000 deaths to virus
Just three weeks after Wisconsin recorded the grim milestone of 2,000 COVID-19 deaths, the state hit another, even grimmer milestone on Saturday.
Three thousand COVID-19 deaths. Three thousand Wisconsinites lost.
It took Wisconsin about five months from the beginning of the pandemic in March to hit 1,000 deaths, which happened on Aug. 11, according to the state Department of Health Services. By Halloween, the state had reached its second 1,000 deaths. The third 1,000 came even quicker.
As of Saturday, 3,005 people in Wisconsin had died from COVID-19.
Nasia Safdar, an infectious disease expert and medical director of infection control at UW Health, said this exponential increase in deaths “supports the idea that the virus is spreading in an uncontrolled manner throughout the state.”
“(The virus) is reaching a lot more people with ease, and many of those people are vulnerable to severe illness and the complications of that,” she said. “It’s an unfortunate but fairly predictable result.”
The seven-day average of COVID-19 deaths in the state was at an all-time high of 54 on Saturday. That’s up from 21 a month earlier. Through September, the average number of deaths was in the single digits or low teens. But then deaths started to spike in October, weeks after cases started rising in the middle of September. The state’s daily record for deaths is 92, set on Tuesday.
If Wisconsin was to average 50 deaths a day for a year, more than 18,000 people would die, said Patrick Remington, a former epidemiologist for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and director of the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s preventive medicine residency program.
Health officials worry the state could see even more cases and deaths in the coming weeks and months following large family gatherings for the holidays. The CDC recommends people avoid traveling for Thanksgiving on Thursday and only celebrate with the people they live with.
This was Wisconsin’s deadliest week of the pandemic. Health officials reported 380 people have died since Sunday.
Wisconsin also reported 6,224 new cases Saturday, which makes up about 35% of the 17,893 test results reported Saturday. The seven-day average of new cases was 6,408.
Model predicts 5,000 COVID deaths by Christmas
Gov. Tony Evers has cited a model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation that projects Wisconsin could reach nearly 8,000 deaths by March 1 if the state continues on this path.
The model predicted the state would pass 3,000 deaths on Friday. It was only a day off, which Remington said is “remarkably precise.”
While models were wildly off at the beginning of the pandemic, Remington said they have become more accurate as scientists continue to learn more about the virus.
Models are less certain the further out they predict, but the IHME model shows Wisconsin will reach 4,000 deaths in early December and pass 5,000 before Christmas. Remington said he is “absolutely certain” they will exceed 5,000 by the end of the year.
That would likely make it the third leading cause of death in Wisconsin, behind cancer and heart disease. According to CDC data, the third leading cause of death in 2017 was accidents, with 3,746.
“Anybody who says this is not a big deal is not looking at the numbers,” Remington said. “As of today, more people have died in the state of Wisconsin from COVID-19 than die in a year from stroke, diabetes, suicide, homicide, car crashes, Alzheimer’s, bronchitis, emphysema, influenza, pneumonia and on.”
Safdar said she prefers to focus on the “big-picture trends” rather than the exact number a model is predicting.
“I think it’s pretty safe to say that with our current trajectory, there will be a large number of deaths,” Safdar said. “This is the worst we’ve ever been, and the way the trajectory is going, there’s no question that deaths are going to go up.”
Three thousand deaths is still less than 1% of all people who have tested positive for COVID-19, and an even smaller percentage of Wisconsin’s population. But Remington said it is important to compare the burden of COVID-19 with other public health problems to really see the virus’ impact.
“If not already, it won’t be long before everybody knows somebody who’s died from COVID-19,” Remington said.
“It’s still a huge number,” Safdar said. “Three thousand deaths is appalling.”
Hospitalizations decreased slightly in recent days
As of Saturday afternoon, 1,990 patients were hospitalized with COVID-19 across the state, according to the Wisconsin Hospital Association. Of those patients, 437 were in an intensive care unit.
Hospitalizations have been rising steadily in Wisconsin since September, and the state reached its peak Tuesday, when 2,277 people were in the hospital. Since then, the number of people in hospitals has dropped by 287. Safdar and Remington said there could be multiple explanations as to why hospital numbers have decreased in recent days.
Remington pointed out that Wisconsin’s cases began to plateau about a week ago. Hospitalizations could be following that trend, Remington said, which is a hopeful sign.
“It appears that hospitalizations are leveling off, as are cases, and so this may be a good sign that finally people are taking the public health recommendations to heart,” Remington said.
Wisconsin reported 11,669 negative tests Saturday, and more than 2.4 million people have been tested since March, according to DHS. Of the 351,169 Wisconsinites who have tested positive for COVID-19:
272,180 or 77.5%, are considered “recovered” by DHS, meaning either there is documented proof their symptoms have resolved or it’s been 30 days since their diagnosis.
75,922, or 21.6%, are considered “active,” meaning they aren’t “recovered” and haven’t died.
3,005, or 0.9%, have died.
At least 15,734, or 4.5% of all people who have tested positive for COVID-19, have been hospitalized, although DHS doesn’t know in about a third of confirmed COVID-19 cases whether the infected person was ever admitted to a hospital.
Contact Natalie Brophy at (715) 2165452 or nbrophy@gannett.com. Follow her on Twitter @brophy_natalie.