Reasons to believe – or doubt – that the Bucks can win the title
The Milwaukee Bucks enter the 2020-21 season as one of the betting favorites to win the NBA championship, but it's not just Las Vegas that is bullish on the franchise. The offseason featured a roster overhaul and Giannis Antetokounmpo is locked in for years to come. Here are three reasons to believe the Bucks can win their second championship 50 years after claiming their first, and three reasons to doubt.
3 reasons to believe
GIANNIS IS ENTERING HIS PRIME: A recent survey of NBA general managers had Giannis Antetokounmpo as their favorite to win his third straight Most Valuable Player Award because, let's face it, the 26-year-old is just about to enter his prime. It sounds unbelievable, but he has improved each season in nearly every facet of his game and there is no doubt he puts in the work to be better. If he can shoot free throws at the rate he did just even a few years ago, that can make him even more dangerous in late-game situations – let alone any incremental improvements he can make with his mid- to long-range shooting stroke. He is one of only a couple of players who can single-handedly take over a game.
HOLIDAY IS A PLAYOFF X-FACTOR: The 30-year-old self-described combination guard was acquired, ostensibly, to score efficiently in the postseason. It may not be fair to Eric Bledsoe to make this a one-for-one comparison, but the former Bucks guard shot 41% overall and just 25% from threepoint range while averaging 13.1 points per game in his 31 playoff starts with the Bucks. Holiday hasn't had that much postseason experience (30 games with Philadelphia and New Orleans), but his play has elevated in those games (17 ppg, 45% overall, 38.7% three-point range). The Bucks are counting on him to continue that trend.
THE DEFENSE IMPROVES: Every practice, every game, begins on the defensive end for Mike Budenholzer's group and it's hard to imagine it getting better than a historic last season in which the Bucks led the NBA in unadjusted (103.36) and adjusted (103.73) defensive rating. They also finished eighth in points per game allowed (108.6). Improvement may not just come on the stat sheet, but rather when stops need to be made in the playoffs. The emphasis on protecting the rim has not gone away, but Budenholzer said in training camp that the individual skill sets of Holiday and newly acquired forwards Bobby Portis and Torrey Craig may allow the team to change things up on pick-and-roll and perhaps even man-to-man defense. These additions could reap major benefits in series play.
3 reasons to doubt
THE SHOOTING FALLS OFF AGAIN: While defense remains the cornerstone of the Bucks, their offense has hit some walls the last two postseasons. In the last regular season they had the best scoring offense (118.7) and shot 47.6% overall and 35.5% from threepoint range. But in the playoff loss to the Miami Heat, they scored 106 points per game while shooting 43.9% and 32.7%. It was nearly a reflection off the Eastern Conference finals loss to Toronto the previous season, when the Bucks' shooting dipped to 42.4% overall and 31% from long range from season marks of 47.6% and 35.3%. That year the Bucks had scored 118 points per game but managed 106.7 against the Raptors.
THE EASTERN CONFERENCE IS DEEPER: The Bucks haven't gotten out of the conference each of the last two seasons and this year it appears, at least on paper, the East is stronger. This has a lot to do with Brooklyn, which will have a healthy Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving to lead a team that was low-seed playoff qualifier last season. The last two teams to reach the NBA Finals, Miami and Toronto, don't appear to be going away, while Boston and Indiana seem poised to be even stronger when totally healthy. Teams that missed the playoffs last year like Washington, Charlotte and Detroit have made additions to try and crack the top eight.
JAMES AND THE WEST: Oh, that guy and those teams. The defending champion Los Angeles Lakers not only extended James and Anthony Davis but have re-tooled the roster around the dynamic duo to keep James' championship window open as he enters his 17th season at age 36. The Lakers are also one of six Western Conference teams that won at least 61% of their games last year, and it wouldn't be prudent to just assume whoever comes out of the opposing conference would be an easy out for the Bucks should they reach the championship round.