Packers’ schedule will be sink or swim
GREEN BAY - There never is any real value to regular-season predictions immediately after the schedule is released. It's just fun banter, an anticipatory look at the season to come.
Given the quarterback situation, it's an especially impossible endeavor to predict what kind of season the Green Bay Packers might be staring at for 2021.
But the schedule is released. So the Packers know the road map that awaits this fall. Will their journey lead to another chance at playing in that elusive Super Bowl, or a rebuilding year?
Here's a look at their potential outcomes based on two scenarios: Aaron Rodgers playing quarterback, and Jordan Love (or Blake Bortles) lining up behind center instead of the three-time MVP.
Week 1: Packers at New Orleans Saints, 3:25 p.m. CT Sunday, Sept. 12, Fox
For the past 13 seasons, this matchup would have been Aaron Rodgers vs. Drew Brees. Could a national showcase instead feature Jordan Love vs. Jameis Winston? Or Blake Bortles vs. Taysom Hill? Quite the difference. Clearly, without Rodgers versus Brees, this opener will be billed as Aaron Jones versus Alvin Kamara. While Jones might've outrushed Kamara with 69 yards and touchdown on 16 carries in their Week 3 meeting at New Orleans last year, Kamara (six carries, 58 yards) dominated the game with 13 catches for 139 yards and two touchdowns.
With Rodgers:
1-0.
Without Rodgers: Packers lose, record 0-1.
Week 2: Packers vs. Detroit Lions, 7:15 p.m. Monday, Sept. 20, ESPN
The Packers start their prime-time schedule early, hosting the Lions on Monday Night Football. Instead of Aaron Rodgers vs. Matthew Stafford, who was traded to the Los Angeles Rams this offseason, this matchup could be Love
Packers win, record or Bortles vs. Jared Goff. Either way, this is a home game in prime time the Packers should win. It is, after all, against the Lions.
With Rodgers: Packers win, 2-0. Without Rodgers: Packers win, 1-1. Week 3: Packers at San Francisco 49ers, 7:20 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 26, NBC
Another prime-time game. This one returns the Packers to the site of their 2019 NFC championship game defeat. The Packers avenged that loss Week 9 last season against a 49ers team missing most of its best players. With this game coming so early in the season, the 49ers should have a much fuller roster
for this kickoff. They have their own quarterback uncertainty after drafting Trey Lance with the third overall pick, a potential replacement for Jimmy Garoppolo. This is also a rubber match of sorts between Matt LaFleur and mentor Kyle Shanahan.
With Rodgers: Packers lose, 2-1. Without Rodgers: Packers lose, 1-2. Week 4: Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 3:25 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 3, CBS
Ben Roethlisberger is back for a 18th season in his Hall of Fame career as the Steelers' quarterback. At 39, it's uncertain just how much Big Ben has left in that right arm. He completed 65 percent of his passes for 3,803 yards with 33 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and a 94.1 passer rating. Most telling, the Steelers were 12-3 when Roethlisberger started. They could still win with him at quarterback.
With Rodgers: Packers win, 3-1. Without Rodgers: Packers lose, 1-3. Week 5: Packers at Cincinnati Bengals, noon Sunday, Oct. 10, Fox
If Love really is playing come Week 5 of the season, this would be a good barometer for his development. On the other sideline will be Joe Burrow, the top overall pick in the 2020 draft. Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst scouted Love at an LSU game during the 2019 season. The Tigers won that game 42-6. Burrow completed 71% of his passes for 344 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. Love completed half his passes for 130 yards, no touchdowns and three interceptions. The talent level will be more equal come Week 5 of this season. Will the quarterbacking?
With Rodgers: Packers win, 4-1. Without Rodgers: Packers lose, 1-4. Week 6: Packers at Chicago Bears, noon Sunday, Oct. 17, Fox
Could the Bears finally have the best quarterback situation in this rivalry for the first time since 1991? That's the season before Brett Favre arrived. Since then, the Packers have followed one Hall of Fame quarterback with another. The Bears made the bold move of this year's first round, trading up to draft Justin Fields with the 11th overall pick. If Fields develops into the franchise quarterback some scouts expect, he could represent a changing of the guard. But it's all about the Bears' defense, especially if it does not have to contend with Rodgers. The Bears' front is formidable enough to load up against the run.
With Rodgers: Packers win, 5-1. Without Rodgers: Packers lose, 1-5. Week 7: Packers vs. Washington Football Team, noon Sunday, Oct. 24, Fox
With or without Rodgers, the Packers should have a better quarterback situation than Washington. Ryan Fitzpatrick, the ageless veteran entering his 17th season, is projected as Washington's starter in 2021. Fitzpatrick started seven of his nine games last season, completing 68.5% of his passes for 2,091 yards, 13 touchdowns, eight interceptions and a 95.6 rating while going 4-3 as a starter. Not bad, and given Washington's potentially elite defense, this is far from a gimme. Still, this is a game the Packers need to win at home after their frequent road trips to open the season, regardless of who's the quarterback.
With Rodgers: Packers win, 6-1. Without Rodgers: Packers win, 2-5. Week 8: Packers at Arizona Cardinals, 7:20 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 28, Fox/ NFL Network
On a short week, the Packers will travel west to play Kyler Murray. It's a quarterback matchup that will get plenty of intrigue, whether the Packers have Rodgers or Love at quarterback. The Cardinals have a run defense that can be exploited, ranking 22nd in the league last season with 125.5 yards allowed per game. But Murray began to blossom as a potential star last season, earning his first Pro Bowl selection while leading a team that is thinking playoffs entering 2021.
With Rodgers: Packers lose, 6-2. Without Rodgers: Packers lose, 2-6. Week 9: Packers at Kansas City Chiefs, 3:25 p.m. Sunday, Nov. 7, Fox
There's a reason Fox protected this game from going to a prime-time network. If it's Aaron Rodgers vs. Patrick Mahomes, this is a divine quarterback matchup that will make all of State Farm's dreams come true. If not, things could get very ugly. Rodgers won the MVP over Mahomes last season. Mahomes gets his revenge, one way or another, against the Packers.
With Rodgers: Packers lose, 6-3. Without Rodgers: Packers lose, 2-7. Week 10: Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks, 3:25 p.m. Sunday, Nov. 14, CBS
Another potential marquee quarterback matchup with Russell Wilson. It will be Wilson's first return to Lambeau Field since the 2019 NFC divisional playoff game, when he played admirably with 277 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions despite being sacked five times. (Wilson also added 64 rushing yards on seven carries.) But Wilson has never won inside Lambeau Field. Could this be his first time?
With Rodgers: Packers win, 7-3. Without Rodgers: Packers lose, 2-8. Week 11: Packers at Minnesota Vikings, noon Sunday, Nov. 21, Fox
The Vikings needed to accomplish two things this spring: improvement on the offensive and defensive line. They focused on their offensive line with their first pick, drafting offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw in the first round. But the Vikings did little to bolster a pass rush that finished 28th with just 23 sacks last season.
With Rodgers: Packers win, 8-3. Without Rodgers: Packers lose, 2-9. Week 12: Packers vs. Los Angeles Rams, 3:25 p.m. Sunday, Nov. 28, Fox
The Packers just can't avoid Matthew Stafford. He leaves the division, but still finds a way onto their schedule. The new Rams quarterback will have plenty of time in Sean McVay's offense by the time he arrives in Lambeau Field, a familiar stomping grounds. Still, the warm-weather Rams did not fare well on the frozen tundra in the NFC divisional playoff game last season, and this is another cold-weather test. Here's guessing the Packers have enough defense and run support to handle their own at home with or without Rodgers at quarterback.
With Rodgers: Packers win, 9-3. Without Rodgers: Packers win, 3-9.
Week 13: Bye
Week 14: Packers vs. Bears, 7:20 p.m. Sunday, Dec. 12, NBC
Given a rare, late-season bye, the Packers get two weeks to prepare for their second game against the Bears. Yet another prime-time kickoff against Chicago inside Lambeau Field, something of an annual request from the networks. The Packers should handle business at home.
With Rodgers: Packers win, 10-3. Without Rodgers: Packers win, 4-9. Week 15: Packers at Baltimore Ravens, noon Sunday, Dec. 19, Fox
The Packers will need to figure out how to tackle Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. That's a major challenge regardless of who lines up as their quarterback. The Ravens gave Jackson another weapon in first-round receiver Rashod Bateman, which should make one of the league's best offenses even more dangerous.
With Rodgers: Packers lose, 10-4. Without Rodgers: Packers lose, 4-10. Week 16: Packers vs. Cleveland Browns, 3:30 p.m. Saturday, Dec. 25, Fox/NFL NETWORK
A Christmas Day kickoff inside Lambeau Field. Could any football setting be more picturesque? The Packers will contend with a Browns team that, behind quarterback Baker Mayfield, has finally become a contender after decades of being a doormat. In 2020, the Browns made only their second playoff appearance since 1994, and their first since 2002. Now they will try to make the playoffs in consecutive years for the first time since 1988-89.
With Rodgers: Packers win, 11-4. Without Rodgers: Packers lose, 4-11. Week 17: Packers vs. Vikings, 7:20 p.m. Sunday, Jan. 2, NBC
This game will only stay in a primetime slot if Rodgers is on the field. The Packers should win inside their home stadium regardless. Here's thinking the Vikings will regret not bolstering their pass rush.
With Rodgers: Packers win, 12-4. Without Rodgers: Packers win, 5-11. Week 18: Packers at Lions, noon Sunday, Jan. 9, FOX
For the first time in NFL history, the league will have a 17-game schedule. In Game 17, the Packers end their season at Detroit for the fourth time in six years. The Packers are only 3-3 in Detroit over the past six seasons. They lost both games in Detroit when Rodgers did not play a significant portion of the snaps by a combined score of 66-11.
With Rodgers: Packers win, 13-4. Without Rodgers: Packers lose, 5-12.