Democratic Senate rivals are closing gap on Barnes
Marquette polls shows tightening primary race
For months, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes has waged a classic front-runner campaign, projecting an air of inevitability while seeking the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
He piled up endorsements from top Democrats like U.S. Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Cory Booker of New Jersey, and House Majority Whip James Clyburn of South Carolina.
He raised more than $4 million from a growing base of small-dollar donors.
Dozens of his prominent state backers, including U.S. Rep. Gwen Moore of
Milwaukee, signed off on a January opinion piece that indicated it was time for Democrats to come together and “take the fight” to Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson.
And then came Wednesday’s Marquette University Law School Poll.
The presumed front-runner is no longer clear of his rivals.
Barnes still leads among Democrats with 19% support, but Milwaukee Bucks’ executive Alex Lasry is gaining on him, with 16% support.
And still in striking distance are state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski with a surge to 7% while Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson holds steady at 5%.
People can quibble with the poll and what it means so early in the race.
Around half of the 363 Democrats surveyed said they hadn’t made up their mind about who they’ll vote for in the primary.
And there’s a large margin of error, plus or minus 6.6%.
More important, there are still three and a half months to go before the Aug. 9 primary.
Barnes hasn’t launched any TV ads yet, while Lasry has poured $5.8 million into the race and run $4.4 million worth of ads.
Meanwhile, Godlewski has put $3.295 million into the race and her campaign has spent more than $1 million on ads since March.
If anything, the poll may reflect Lasry’s ability to use TV advertising to raise his name identification as he tries to make his case to the wider electorate.
“In primary races you see numbers move if one candidate is dominating the airwaves,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
The Barnes campaign isn’t discounting the poll – in fact, it sent out a fundraising appeal noting the results under a memo line, “Mandela’s millionaire op
ponents are gaining ground.”
In a separate email to the news media, Maddy McDaniel, communications director for the Barnes campaign, also listed several takeaways from the poll numbers, while also pointing to an internal survey that showed a wide lead for Barnes.
“After a combined $6 million plus of unprecedented spending on TV and undisclosed amounts more on other forms of voter contact before the primary election, Mr. Lasry and Ms. Godlewski continue to trail the Lt. Governor – who has yet to begin spending on paid advertising,” McDaniel wrote.
She added: “Self-funders historically experience a polling bump when they go up on TV early. That bump usually fades once the rest of the candidates in the race start communicating.”
By the time all the campaigns are on air, voters may be paying attention.
“The race hasn’t fully engaged yet,” said Jessica Taylor, the Senate and Governors Editor for The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
The Cook Political Report rates the Wisconsin U.S. Senate race as a tossup, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball has the state leaning Republican.
The Marquette Poll’s full sample of 805 registered voters shows just why things are so tight.
Just 36% of those polled have a favorable view of Johnson, compared to 46% who have an unfavorable view. Marquette’s polling has found Johnson “underwater” with the public since August 2020.
“When you’re an incumbent you never want to be that low certainly,” said Taylor of The Cook Political Report. “It’s a big reason why we have the race a toss-up even though the environment is one that should benefit Republicans.”
Also significant, 39% of those polled said “cares about people like me” described Johnson, while 50% said it did not.
Kondik of Sabato Crystal Ball indicated despite Johnson’s current poll woes, the national political environment could help the incumbent: “I realize Johnson’s numbers are not good but this is the kind of year where you want an R next to your name.”