Draft is proof changes to come
GREEN BAY - The Green Bay Packers were going to look different on offense in 2022 no matter how the NFL draft went.
Then the early run on receivers in Thursday’s first round plus general manager Brian Gutekunst’s decision to spend two high picks (Nos. 53 and 59) on one player (Christian Watson) in the second set coach Matt LaFleur’s offense on a new path for 2022.
Yes, Aaron Rodgers, the NFL’s backto-back MVP, will still be at the helm and ultimately the key to how far this team goes. But with Davante Adams gone and only one high-round receiver drafted to replace him, the strength of the 2022 Packers’ offense will be its backfield of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.
LaFleur’s offense, built around the zone run to begin with, figures to rely on them more than ever to make life easier for Rodgers and his new receiving corps. LaFleur wasn’t telegraphing his plans in his post-draft news conference Saturday night, but he knows as well as anyone how the strength of his offensive roster dovetails with an offensive scheme that goes to greater lengths than any other in the NFL to marry the run and pass games.
“I go back to Tennessee,” LaFleur said, referring to his one season as the Titans’ offensive coordinator before becoming Packers coach, “if you have to run ball 40 times in a game, then you do what you’ve got to do.”
As LaFleur said immediately after, he won’t be going to that extreme because he has Rodgers. But it’s a safe bet the Packers’ run percentage will go up from the 41.6 percent (No. 15 in the NFL) it was last season now that Rodgers’ top two targeted receivers from 2021 (Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling) have been replaced by only one receiver drafted in the first three rounds.
LaFleur simply doesn’t have the pass-catching talent to run his offense like he did the last couple of seasons, so he’s likely going to be going back
even more to his roots in the Mike Shanahan zone-run scheme.
That’s because Gutekunst put his draft-receiver eggs for 2022 in one basket, Watson. The GM chose to go for the one highly rated player rather than play the number odds by taking two in the second round and hoping one would be good enough to help right away.
Instead of trading up for Watson, Gutekunst could have moved up only a couple spots from 53 and landed Georgia’s George Pickens at receiver. Other receivers who went anywhere from 53 to the early third round were Western Michigan’s Skyy Moore, Cincinnati’s Alex Pierce, South Alabama’s Jalen Tolbert and Tennessee’s Velus Jones.
But instead of taking two of them, the GM made the gambit of trading up for Watson. Now it’s up to LaFleur, his coaching staff and Rodgers to get the most they can from a player who’s on the raw side of the ledger even for a rookie.
“He’s big, he’s fast and he’s physical,” LaFleur said of Watson.
Gutekunst did add two receivers on the draft’s third day, Nevada’s Romeo Doubs in the fourth round and Nebraska’s Samori Toure. But even if one turns out to be better than Watson — it’s hardly unheard of for a later draft pick to be better than an earlier one at a given position — that’s probably not happening in 2022. The Packers are right to expect Watson to help them a lot this year, raw or not. Anything the other two add is gravy, though.
Gutekunst’s drafting of three offensive linemen in the final five rounds also jumped out. All three — UCLA’s Sean Rhyan in the third round, Wake Forest’s Zach Tom in the fourth and Penn State’s Rasheed Walker in the seventh — are college left tackles who could end up almost anywhere along the line.
You have to think at least one will get a crack at the right tackle job for which Yosh Nijman is the front-runner. And especially with Rhyan and Tom being from rounds where the Packers have landed a lot of starters on the offensive line, both starting guards (Jon Runyan and Royce Newman) could face immediate competition too as the Packers try to become a better run team in the here and now.
In picking three linemen Gutekunst also was protecting himself because his two best, David Bakhatiari and Elgton Jenkins, are coming off ACL injuries. Bakhtiari is now 15 months removed from his surgery, but his aborted return last season has to leave the Packers wondering about his future. The team has expressed nothing but optimism he’ll be his old self with another offseason of recovery, but it’s telling that Gutekunst used this draft to replenish his line ahead of other positions.
“I have a lot of faith in David and him getting back to where he needs to be,” Gutekunst said after Saturday’s final rounds. “I know he’s working his tail off and feeling good about it. At the same time it’s the National Football League, and injuries are tough. We have to be prepared either way. But I’m pretty confident David is going to get back to the level he was at prior to the injury.”
As always with the draft, immediate help matters but usually isn’t the primary goal. Last year’s produced two expected starters (Eric Stokes and Josh Myers) and another (Newman) who came out of nowhere to win a job. This year’s projects two starters (Quay Walker and Watson), plus a third (Devonte Wyatt) who figures to be in the thick of the defensive line rotation.
But you never know how it will play out. And there’s no telling who might be the best player from this draft in three years.
Regardless, LaFleur’s offense will have to evolve with his personnel. With Adams gone, that means Jones, Dillon and LaFleur’s scheme will be more important than ever.
The coach even said he’s looked back at cutups of his offense from his first three years with the Packers and saw some things he has drifted away from that he might want to get back to this year. Hard not to wonder if among those is the jet-sweep action that was a relative rarity last year.
More than anything, though, we’re going to see LaFleur’s zone-run offensive scheme, only more so.