Farmers’ Almanac predicts hot, stormy Wis. summer
But 200-year-old formula only about half accurate
It was recently confirmed that Milwaukee and Wisconsin just closed out their warmest winters on record, but what will this summer’s weather look like?
If the Farmers’ Almanac has predicted correctly, Wisconsinites should brace for more warmer-than-normal weather, along with plenty of thunderstorms.
The almanac, which has been predicting weather (with varying accuracy) since 1818, recently released its extended weather forecast for the upcoming summer, titled “Summer Soaker Ahead.”
“Hold on to your umbrellas … and tune up your AC,” the almanac says. “Summer is coming early this year, and it may bring the hottest temperatures in recorded history!”
The almanac’s 200-year-old mathematical and astronomical formula indicates a “muggy, stormy” summer for Wisconsin and the rest of the Midwest region, which includes Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio.
A “warm, hot and muggy” summer is predicted for most of the country, except for the Northwestern states, which the almanac predicts will see “more seasonable summer temperatures.”
The humidity is expected to bring a “plethora” of storms to Wisconsin, the Midwest and areas east of the Mississippi River. This could mean a stormy first half of the year, as the almanac’s forecast also predicts a “cool, unsettled” spring for Wisconsin and the Midwest, including possible Easter storms and Memorial Day weekend rain.
Although lots of storms aren’t the ideal summer forecast, Farmers’ Almanac predicts storms will hold off in the Midwest on major summer holidays. “Considerable cloudiness” is expected in the region on Father’s Day — Sunday, June 16. “Fair, tranquil” conditions are in the forecast for the Midwest over Independence Day weekend — Thursday, July 4 through Sunday, July 7.
Finally, to close out the summer, the almanac calls for August to be “especially wet and showery across the eastern
two-thirds of the country,” including Wisconsin.
How accurate are predictions?
The Farmers’ Almanac has released extended weather forecasts every year since 1818, using the same forecast formula. The almanac states that its readers find its predictions to be accurate about 80% to 85% of the time.
However, the Columbus Dispatch found that most analyses of the almanac’s predictions have indicated an accuracy rate of 50%. If that’s the case, you might as well flip a coin.
Last year, the almanac predicted a “cold and stormy” winter for Wisconsin and other Midwest states in its extended weather forecast for winter 20232024. However, Wisconsin and four other states in the region experienced their warmest winters on record. Wisconsin even saw its warmest-ever winter temperature of 77 degrees on Feb. 27.
The almanac’s winter forecast also predicted continued storms and cold weather with “wild swings in the thermometer” for March throughout the country. While Wisconsin has seen storms this month, temperatures have been normal to well above normal.