No population crisis here
Californians keep hearing that our state has a population problem: Recent statistics from the Department of Finance show that from July 2021 to July 2022, we lost about 211,000 residents. This, on top of a bigger decline between 2020 and 2021, has reinvigorated talk of an exodus as the state's population dropped by half a million people in two years.
Should we worry? Is California headed to demographic, economic and political stagnation?
As population scientists, we do see a concerning impact on California's rural counties — but overall, there are more opportunities in Californians' relative youth and the state's ability to attract immigrants than there are alarm bells.
Population changes are driven by two factors. The first, which demographers call “natural increase,” is the difference between births and deaths. From July 2021 to July 2022, there were 105,686 more Californians born than those who died. This modest population increase is unlikely to drive significant growth in the future because births in California have been trending downward.
The second population driver is net migration: the number of people coming to a place, whether from elsewhere in the country or from other nations, compared to the number who leave. Net migration is sometimes treated as a popularity contest. Governors boast about how great their state is because people are “voting with their feet.” By this metric, California and New York are no longer the cool kids; people are heading to states like Florida, Texas and Georgia for cheaper housing, jobs and to join family (not necessarily for lower taxes). From 2021 to 2022, 316,668 more people left the state than those who arrived. Following the 2020 Census, for the first time in history, California lost a seat in the House of Representatives. Texas gained two seats and Florida gained one.
California's biggest recent population losses have been in Los Angeles County (113,048) and the Bay Area's Santa Clara (16,553) and Alameda (15,959) counties. That may seem to fit the common narrative that young families and knowledge economy professionals in major metro areas are fleeing California. But these are also among the state's most populous counties — in fact, these losses accounted for only about 1% of residents in each county. Fewer people putting pressure on housing, highways and energy might not be a bad thing in Los Angeles and the Bay Area.
Rather, as is true across the United States, it's small communities in California that are being hollowed out as young people leave and older residents pass away. Proportionally, the state's largest population losses occurred among rural counties in the Sierra and North Coast, including in Lassen, Del Norte, Plumas and Tuolumne. In these places, population loss means staff shortages or long drives for health care, shuttered businesses and a sense of being left behind.
Immigration numbers are beginning to rebound — and that's a positive trend for California. It's helpful in a tight labor market, especially because foreignborn residents are much more likely to be working than those born in the U.S. and a boon for California's tax base. In Canada, immigrant workers accounted for 84% of total labor force growth during the 2010s. The coming decades might well be marked by global competition for migrant workers.
Although Congress ultimately controls immigration policy, California can take advantage of opportunities such as the State Department's new “Welcome Corps” program, which allows a small group of private citizens to sponsor refugees settling in their community.
California doesn't have a population crisis. But if we want to promote growth, we have to work to welcome more immigrants and reduce the cost of living to allow more people to stay.