U.S. emissions surged in 2021, putting the nation further off track from its climate targets

WASHINGTON » U.S. greenhouse gas emissions roared back in 2021, the latest indicator that the country remains far off track from meeting President Joe Biden’s ambitious climate change targets for the end of this decade.

A 17% surge in coal-fired electricity helped drive an overall increase of 6.2% in greenhouse gas emissions compared with the previous year, according to an analysis published Monday by the Rhodium Group. While emissions remained below pre-pandemic levels, it marked the first annual increase in reliance on the nation’s dirtiest fossil fuel since 2014, the independent research firm said.

The rise in the nation’s emissions, which many experts anticipate will continue this year, is a sign of an economy on the mend. But it also signals a potentially ominous climate reality: The United States is not yet emerging from the coronavirus pandemic with a greener economy, making it that much harder for Biden to deliver on his pledge to cut the nation’s emissions in half by 2030.

“In an ideal world, we want the economy to rebound, but not the emissions,” Kate Larsen, a coauthor of the analysis who leads Rhodium’s international energy and climate research, said in an interview.

Larsen added that the surge in coal generation was “almost entirely due to high natural gas prices” as oil and gas producers curbed new production in response to lower global demand because of pandemic lockdowns. “Emissions from our power sector were pretty much at the whim of energy markets,” she said.

The nation’s largest source of greenhouse gas emissions - transportation - also saw the steepest rebound during 2021, rising 10% over the previous year, Rhodium found. The arrival of coronavirus vaccines and the nation’s fitful efforts to emerge from the pandemic meant more Americans traveled on roads and in the skies than in 2020. But road freight was the only mode of transportation that rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, as thousands of diesel-powered trucks rumbled along the nation’s highways to deliver consumer goods.

Separately on Monday, scientists with the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that the last seven years were the Earth’s hottest on record. Globally, 2021 was the fifth warmest ever recorded, the scientists found, and atmospheric concentrations of the potent gases carbon dioxide and methane continued to rise.

Last spring, Biden vowed to launch an all-of-government effort to cut U.S. carbon pollution 50 to 52% by 2030, compared with 2005 levels, and to put the nation on track to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.

“We’re going to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by well over a gigaton by 2030, while making it more affordable for consumers to save on their own energy bills with tax credits for things like installing solar panels, weatherizing their homes, lowering energy prices,” Biden told fellow world leaders at a United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, in November.

He promised to electrify school bus fleets, increase tax credits for electric vehicles, ramp up construction of solar panels and wind turbines and incentivize cleaner manufacturing - all while creating wellpaying union jobs.

“We’ll demonstrate to the world the United States is not only back at the table but hopefully leading by the power of our example,” he said.

Biden used his executive authority during his first year in office to jump-start an array of climate policies, including proposing tougher tailpipe emissions standards for new cars and requiring the federal government to become carbon neutral by 2050. But a major piece of his climate agenda is stalled on Capitol Hill, where Democrats are still struggling to pass their roughly $1.75 trillion climate and social spending bill.

The Build Back Better Act contains a historic $555 billion package of tax credits, grants and other policies aimed at reducing emissions and boosting clean energy. But Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.VA., said in late December that he could not support the legislation, potentially dooming its chances in the Senate.

John Podesta, who served as a counselor to Barack Obama and chief of staff to Bill Clinton, said that without Build Back Better, it will be impossible to meet Biden’s goal of halving U.S. emissions by 2030.