Herbst, Lamont are weak candidates

In virtually every way, Democrat Ned Lamont and Republican Tim Herbst have little, if anything, in common. But in one major way, these candidates for Connecticut’s next governor share a lot: they are weak candidates.

First, Herbst.

Weak? Herbst?

Yes, he’s a bomb-thrower, a brawler, a conservative’s conservative. He believes he has the wind at his back, with an outsider like President Trump in the White House and Gov. Dannel Malloy being the most unpopular governor in the country. Trumbull’s former first selectman has years of experience, too. Attitude, experience, cunning —these are enormous assets.

But with Republican frontrunner Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton staking a claim for soft partisans, Herbst must run to the right for as many Trumpvoting conservatives as he can. That means taking a position on immigration that’s going to take as much as it gives.

He’s fearless, too, I’ll give him that. Earlier this month, he and other GOP candidates debated in New Haven, the very beating heart of sanctuary city politics. He warned Mayor Toni Harp and others to watch out. If he wins the election, he said, he’d force

sanctuary cities to bend a knee.

“If I’m elected governor of the state of the Connecticut, Luke Bronin (Hartford’s mayor), Toni Harp, and Joe Ganim (Bridgeport’s mayor) will understand very clearly that they will either comply with federal immigration officials or they risk losing their funding from the state.”

That’s a bold statement. It’s also wrong.

First, unlawful entry to the U.S. is a misdemeanor, a minor offense. (Deportation, by the way, is a civil procedure, not a criminal one.) Second, sanctuary cities do obey federal law. What they don’t do is bend to federal preferences. They insist on seeing judicial warrants. “Comply” here really means “submit.” As in: Do whatever ICE tells you.

Even so, it’s a bold statement, so bold you might wonder: Does Herbst want anyone in the major cities to vote for him? I mean, sure, Republicans live here, too, so maybe he’s courting them. But it’s also true that where Connecticut’s cities go, so goes the winning candidate.

Yes, campaigns are won and lost at the margins, and Herbst was almost certainly signaling to suburban Republicans that he’s willing to stick it to the cities and their Democratic Machines. But seriously, with images of toddlers wailing for their jailed mothers on the southern border, and with the president Wednesday caving to demands to stop holding them for ransom, you’d think Herbst would be more distant. No, he’s staying the course.

Good luck with that.

Now for Ned. Ah, Ned. Unlike Herbst, Ned Lamont has never won anything. Well, he did beat former U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman in the 2006 Democratic primary, but that was long ago in an America far, far away. Anyway, then he lost. Then he lost again in 2010 to Malloy in the race for governor.

More importantly, Ned Lamont has not faced any serious challenge on his way to this year’s Democratic Party nomination.

His rivals fell over themselves to get out of his way. On the one hand, you could call this smooth sailing. On the other, you could call it a shipwreck-in-waiting.

Joe Ganim looks stronger than Lamont. Odd, but true. The ex-con mayor of the state’s largest city got twice as many signatures than are needed for a spot on the Democratic primary ballot. That’s some serious hustle from a former hustler once convicted on federal corruption charges.

I don’t think Ganim has a prayer. Lamont will carry the primary. But at least Ganim has a clear base of power — urban-dwelling liberal Democrats — and a story of redemption and hope. Those are the assets you want for the general. What’s Lamont got? Mostly money. Some fame.

Money matters, of course. As does namerecognition. But those are not enough. We know this. The WWE’s Linda McMahon spent millions losing to U.S. Sen. Richard Blumenthal. For his part, Lamont is playing catch-up, proving to voters in Fair Haven, for instance, that he has, once or twice, dared to venture out of the tony, leafy streets of Greenwich.

As I said, it’s early.

But Herbst and Lamont are the weak candidates.