New Haven Register (New Haven, CT)
WHO’S GOT THE GREEN?
A look at the money race between Hayes, Sullivan
U.S. Rep. Jahana Hayes maintained her lead in the money race over GOP challenger David X. Sullivan as the candidates reached the final weeks of campaigning for Connecticut’s most competitive congressional seat.
Sullivan worked hard across greater Danbury and the 5th District to raise a total of $100,000 in July, August and September, according to the latest campaign finance disclosure statements filed with the Federal Election Commission. But the incumbent Democrat Hayes raised four times that amount during the same quarter.
That means Hayes started October with a total of $1.49 million in cash to spend, compared to Sullivan’s $107,000.
Every November, candidates remind voters that what wins elections is not money but rather the right candidate with the right message at the right time. It’s also true that in a district that stretches from Danbury to the Massachusetts border, it’s difficult to reach all the voters with the right message without money.
“David’s focus and priorities are on the people of the 5th District,” said Sullivan’s campaign manager, George Linkletter. “His campaign is funded predominately by small-dollar donors who live here in the 5th District and Connecticut.”
Hayes in a statement said she was grateful for “thousands of people making contributions of $100 or less.”
“We are in a global pandemic. People’s lives have been devastated,” Hayes said. “It is both telling and reinforcing to me that people are still compelled to contribute to our effort, despite their own hardships, because they want me to continue to serve as their representative and be their voice in congress.”
Aminor party candidate from Newtown does not figure in the financial reporting because he is not raising money for his campaign.
Here are five takeaways about the money race, based on the candidates’ latest finance disclosure statements
1. Hayes has more cash to spend
Hayes started October with $1.5 million in cash to spend on her campaign, compared to Sullivan’s $107,000 cash on hand. Expect Hayes to use her cash advantage to saturate voters in the 41 cities and towns of the 5th District with her message of inclusive leadership. Expect Sullivan to continue his advertising campaign of extolling conservative values and trying to link Hayes to what he calls unpopular priorities of the left.
2. Sullivan is the best-funded Republican of the last three elections
Even before the latest fi
nancial disclosure statements were filed with the FEC, Sullivan outraised what the previous two GOP candidates for the 5th District raised combined. Compare Sullivan’s $339,000 raised to date with Clay Cope’s $110,000 in 2016 and Manny Santos’ $76,000 in 2018. Even so, Sullivan is not near the $2 million Mark Greenberg raised in his unsuccessful run in 2014, or the $1.6 million Republican Andrew Roraback raised in his unsuccessful run in 2012.
3. Hayes has maintained her 5-to-1 lead in fundraising
The latest numbers show that Hayes has not let up, despite her lead, raising a total of $1.8 million to Sullivan’s $339,000. In the last quarter, Hayes had a similar 5-to-1 margin, raising $1.3 million to Sullivan’s $235,000.
4. Hayes and Sullivan are closest in spending
The smallest margin between Hayes and Sullivan concerns how much the two had spent on the campaign by the end of September. Only $80,000 separated the incumbent Hayes from the challenger Sullivan. Hayes spent $189,000 on media production, printing, fundraising services and media consultation, according to her records. Sullivan spent $106,000 on mailers, fundraising consultation, voter analysis, web promotion and campaign management, his records show. Don’t expect this spending margin to remain small; Hayes entered October with $1.4 million more to spend than Sullivan.
5. Hayes is favored for a reason
While money isn’t the only barometer election forecasters watch, it’s among the most important. Money is a main reason Hayes is favored to win reelection in November by Cook Political Report and Inside Elections. Washington, D.C., also watches candidates’ fundraising and makes decisions about who to feature based in part on strong financial support. Hayes, for example, is featured as a “Frontline” Democrat by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. In contrast, Sullivan is not listed on any tier of the “Young Guns” featured candidate program, run by the National Republican Congressional Committee.