The risk and reward of the Patriots re-signingMeyers

Jakobi Meyers should be the poster child for players the Patriots want to re-sign.

He entered the league as an undrafted rookie. He developed himself into a tough, smart and versatile veteran. He’s a leader and culture driver.

But soon, Meyersmight be an ex-Patriot.

The Pats’ top free agent is expected to drawsignificant interest on the open market next week, when teams can officially begin contract talks once the league’s “legal tampering” period starts Monday. Front offices annually engage in negotiations with player agents well before the “legal tampering” period, acts of actual tampering the NFL either can’t — or doesn’t care enough to — stamp out.

As forMeyers, the NFL Network reported his suitors do not believe he’s worth the type of contract elite receivers have recently commanded, those north of $15 million per year. They believe his value lies in the $12 million to $14 million range. The Patriots reportedly hope he will return to them with his highest outside offer and either match it or wish him well, a common free-agent practice in the Bill Belichick era.

If Meyers walks, the Pats will not only lose their leading receiver of the past three seasons, but a 26-year-old entering his physical prime. He’s surehanded, sharp and reliable. He can play inside the slot and outside. His routes are pristine.

The trouble isMeyers is stuck in the NFL’s friend zone. His tape doesn’t wow. He garners respect from opponents, but not enough for their coaches to send double teams or their front offices to fall in love. He ranked 39th in separation last season, per Next Gen Stats, and the league’s 25th-best receiver, according to Pro Football Focus grades, which had him as the No. 20 receiver against man coverage and 32nd-best versus zone.

Meyers is unassuming and unspectacular, and perfectly content living his professional life that way.

“I can make big plays, but I like to be the guy when (Mac Jones) needs somebody just to get rid of it, I’ll take it,” Meyers said last year.

Even asMeyers reached career highs the past two seasons, ex-Patriots coaches, pined for thePats to replace him with a new slot weapon. A quick, move-the-chains, Edelman type. Meyers is not that.

But he is the best receiver in free agency. Losing Meyers would likely force the Patriots to replenish their depth via the draft, where Belichick has famously struck out like a double-A ballplayer on a weekend stint in the big leagues. Except Belichick’s stint is now two decades long — and counting.

Or the Patriots could scour the trade market, where 30-year-old veterans on bloated contracts abound. There’s DeAndre Hopkins and Brandin Cooks, possibly Keenan Allen, too. Younger targets on expiring deals, like Cincinnati’s Tee Higgins and Denver’s Jerry Jeudy, might spring free. Except striking those dealswould cost the Patriots significant draft equity and cap space, whereas re-signing Meyers would only take money.

Such a tradewould also require the Patriots to believe that receiver is anupgrade over Meyers worth upwards of an extra 25% in base salary, plus the draft capital lost in the deal. Even if the Pats opt for a cheaper receiver, like Jeudy orHiggins, their bill would come within a year or two, assuming the Patriots want more than a rental. Bottom line: any trade would represent a commitment the team has been reluctant tomake ever since Belichick took over; paying an elite receiver — someone whose tape makes them gush — top dollar.

It’s a risk. Love hurts. ThePatriots’ last receiver splurge— handingNelson Agholor a 2-year, $22 million after a career year — was a disaster. Agholor failed in every respect. Of course, Meyers is steadier. He’s solid. He’s a rock, and has been for years.

“He’s shown a lot of leadership and competitiveness like he always does. So, yeah, I’mglad we have him,” Belichick said in January.

Meyers is a quarterback’s best friend — and that justmight be the trouble. Re-signing him at or above the upper half of his price range could discourage the front office from committing serious money to another, better receiver; a game-changer who could raise the offense’s ceiling unlike anyone else on the roster but wouldcommandsimilarly unique money.

And there’s the rub with the Patriots’ upcoming decision at receiver and their offense as a whole: is it better to chase a player you love and risk long-term pain? Or resign what you know and run it backwithanoffense that may be good enough to compete but not contend?