Offense keeps evolving

Hubert Davis remembers the inside-out emphasis of playing for North Carolina Hall of Famer Dean Smith before a 12-year NBA career.

“When I was here at Carolina or in the NBA, you had two big bigs and you threw the ball into the post,” the Tar Heels coach said. “Then they threw it back out to me. My job was to throw it right back into the post. And then they threw it back out to me, and it was late shot clock, maybe I could shoot the 3.”

Things look different today across college basketball when it comes to the way offenses operate.

As March Madness arrives, offensive efficiency is at its highest point in almost three decades, according to KenPom’s national statistics. The lumbering space-eaters in the post have been largely replaced by playmakers with length and shooting range.

Players have become more versatile in an age of position-less skillsets. And that has created more freedom for coaches to add wrinkles to tried-and-true philosophies aided by readily accessible film and analytics data.

“There are all these different angles, just different places on the court,” said Connecticut coach Dan Hurley, whose Huskies won last year’s national championship and are this year’s No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.

And that’s led to an uptick in KenPom’s efficiency metrics.

Division I teams have averaged 105.1 points scored per 100 possessions, marking the fourth straight increase from 100.8 in the 2019-20 season. This year’s average is the highest KenPom has charted in data going back to the 1996-97 season.

So is this more about offenses evolving into a more sophisticated version of themselves? Michigan State coach Tom Izzo, whose Spartans are in the NCAA tourney for the 26th straight time, thinks the answer is simpler.

“I don’t think the plays have changed,” Izzo said. “The people running them have changed a little bit more. You used to have two centers, a point guard who wasn’t a good shooter, and two wings that could shoot. Now you’ve almost got four, sometimes five guys that can shoot.”

A further look into the data reveals a few other telling numbers that line up with Izzo’s assessment.

For one, turnover percentage for possessions checked in at 17.1%, the lowest figure dating to 1996-97. And the assist rate has dropped to 50.7% — the lowest figure in data dating to the 1992-93 season. That indicates players’ expanded skillsets translate into fewer mistakes when handling the ball or being more capable of creating shots rather than depending on a teammate for a post entry.