New Haven Register (New Haven, CT)
NOAA predicting a warmer spring for Connecticut
Connecticut is expected to have a mild and calm spring this year, after breaking weather records in the winter.
Forecasters at the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration released their spring weather outlook for the United States Thursday, projecting above-average temperatures for much of the continental U.S., including Connecticut, from April to June.
Connecticut and most of the Eastern seaboard have a 40 to 50 percent chance of experiencing a warmer-than-normal spring, according to the outlook. The average spring temperature in Hartford is 49.1 degrees and Bridgeport’s average is 50 degrees.
Most parts of the state have equal chances of seeing above- or below-average precipitation levels. Both Hartford and Bridgeport have recorded a spring average of 11-12 inches of precipitation in the last 30 years, according to NOAA.
NOAA scientists explained that the globe is transitioning out of El Niño, a climate pattern that generates warm water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and influences global weather patterns. During the spring, these warm waters are expected to cool down to neutral conditions, before the cooler counterpart, La Niña, emerges in the summer.
While scientists have attributed the strong El Niño presence as a key factor for its winter outlooks this past year, the climate phenomenon was projected to have little effect on Connecticut. A strong presence of La Niña and El Niño tends to lead to greater weather extremes in impacted areas.
However, the 2023-24 winter season in Connecticut wasn’t exactly “normal.”
The past season, December 2023-February 2024, was the wettest and third-hottest winter on record for Hartford, according to the Northeast Regional Climate Center. Bridgeport also saw its third-wettest and sixthwarmest winter in recorded history.
Heading into spring, NOAA’s National Water Center predicted a lowerthan-average flood risk across the entire country, due to historically little snowfall across the Upper Great Plains and western U.S. Drought conditions have also improved nationwide from last year, with Connecticut having a zero drought risk, but some parts of the Rocky Mountains and the Great Plains will likely deal with drought this spring.
Jon Gottschalck, operations branch chief for NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in a press conference Thursday that the low snow cover in areas like the northern tier of the U.S. could help in the short term with flooding, but could become a detriment later for drought conditions.
“Things can change very quickly during the spring,” Gottschalck said. “We are worried about some areas where extreme heat, wildfire risk, where some of the dry conditions do exist in the Southwest, lower Southern Plains, Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley.”
Experts also warned that climate change is making weather more volatile and shifting the new normal. A new report by Climate Central analyzes how human-induced climate change increased temperatures worldwide from December 2023 to February 2024, the world’s hottest February on record.
“Climate change is affecting the timing, intensity and duration of weather events in the United States,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in Thursday’s release. “The Spring Outlook is one of the many tools NOAA provides to help communities prepare for what’s ahead.”