New Haven Register (Sunday) (New Haven, CT)
The economy is booming. But are Americans ready for the next recession?
Need a few thousand bucks? Get a loan fast online. Need a mortgage? Apply for one on your phone. Have questions for your bank? Chat with a robot instead of a teller.
The way Americans interact with the financial system has changed dramatically over the last 10 years. And yet, for all the technological innovation, Americans’ fundamental relationship with the institutions that help them pay for homes, cars and other necessities remains largely unchanged.
A decade after the financial crisis, many households are no more prepared for an economic downturn today than they were then. And though there’s less risky lending in some areas, new worries have emerged.
Student and auto debt have soared, new types of loans backed by untested technology have hit the market and the average American has benefited little from the roaring stock and housing markets.
“There are more people on the margins than there were in 2008,” said Mehrsa Baradaran, an associate dean at the University of Georgia School of Law who has written extensively about wealth inequality and the financial system. “More people have been knocked out of the secure middle class. I think the next crisis will hurt as much if not more.”
One worrisome sign is that, when a crisis or recession comes — and experts agree it’s a question of when, not if — Americans will probably be in just as much debt as they were in 2008, if not more.
In the third quarter of 2008, U.S. household debt peaked at $12.7 trillion. After falling for a few years, debt started to rise again. Today, that figure stands at $13.3 trillion.
The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation or population growth, but they nevertheless show that Americans, after cutting back, are borrowing again.
And more than ever, they’re borrowing in the form of student loans as the cost of higher education has far outpaced inflation.
Since mid-2008, mortgage, home equity and credit card debt have shrunk while the amount of student debt has more than doubled. The increase in student debt accounts for nearly all of the increase in overall household debt.
Despite the growth, investors aren’t worried about student loans taking down the financial system. Bankruptcy laws make it nearly impossible to shed student loans, and the federal government, rather than banks or private investors, owns most of it.
Still, investors are concerned that high monthly payments could have long-term effects on the economy, potentially stunting its growth.
Even in the mortgage market, where there’s less outstanding debt than in 2008, there’s still plenty of risk to go around.
Though exotic subprime loans such as option ARMs, with adjustable rates and payment plans offered by the likes of Countrywide and Ameriquest are gone, borrowers with bad credit or little savings for a down payment are still getting home loans. The difference is that now those loans are made through the Federal Housing Administration mortgage-insurance program or are otherwise governmentbacked.
In 2005 and 2006, the peak years before the crash, governmentbacked loans accounted for only about 35 percent of all new mortgages; by last year, that figure had risen to 70 percent, according to the Urban Institute.
Rivelle said that means a meltdown in the mortgage market probably won’t cause the same damage as the last one because banks and private investors are less exposed.
“If you want to be an optimist, if there’s a blowup in the housing market it will not impact the banks the way it did in the last cycle,” he said. “But there has been a marked deterioration in the quality of loans.”
Kim Schoenholtz, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, said these risky, largely government-backed loans are a sign that, despite a housing-led recession and financial crisis, U.S. policymakers are still incentivizing home ownership to a dangerous degree.
FHA loans and other programs, he said, encourage people to try to build their nest eggs not by investing in the stock market or saving but by plowing money into a single piece of real estate.
“We’re encouraging people to adopt very risky financial behavior — to acquire an illiquid, undiversified asset and to borrow heavily against it,” he said.
About one-quarter of U.S. adults have no retirement savings, according to a 2017 household financial survey by the Federal Reserve, and 41 percent say they would not have enough savings to cover a $400 emergency expense.
“I think a lot of people did learn their lesson, but people need student loans to go to college,” Baradaran said. “These aren’t greedy people. They’re not gamblers. I don’t think everyone is making bad decisions.”
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