Patriots, Bills plenty motivated

When it comes to betting the NFL, the key each week is to identify games that stand out, games that involve matchups and trends that in the mind of the handicapper indicates the best possible choices to cover against the spread.

Sometimes, at least for this handicapper, you also consider motivational factors.

Miami has been one of the early surprises this season. The Dolphins improved to 3-0 with a 28-20 win over Oakland last week. Who would have thought that the Dolphins would own a two-game lead in the AFC East standings over New England after the first three weeks of the season?

It’s been an up-and-down season for the Patriots (1-2). They host the Dolphins Sunday and I believe New England will produce one of its typical statement games with a blowout win in a game they are only giving 7 points.

Playing against Minnesota last week, 17-point underdog Buffalo looked pretty good on both sides of the ball in its 27-6 upset win.

This week oddsmakers aren’t giving the underdog Bills any respect with another double-digit point spread. Sure, the Bills are getting 10 points because they are playing at Green Bay. But Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is still playing through a knee injury and the 1-1-1 Packers haven’t been a dominant juggernaut scoring 70 points and allowing 83.

Packers will likely win but the Bills cover.

TODAY’S GAMES

Miami at New England (-7): See above. Nowak’s pick: Patriots 33-17.

Houston at Indianapolis (-1): I am off the 0-3 Texans bandwagon ... for now. In their last 16 matchups in Indianapolis, the Colts have had the Texans’ number with a 14-2 record straight up. Nowak’s pick: Colts 24-17.

Cincinnati at Atlanta (-51⁄2): The Falcons have allowed 85 points and the Bengals 77 in three games, so this should be a highscoring game. The edge goes to Atlanta playing at home. Nowak’s pick: Falcons 33-24.

Buffalo at Green Bay (-10): See above. Nowak’s pick: Packers 27-24.

Detroit at Dallas (-3): The Lions finally got it all together on both sides of the ball in their 26-10 win over New England last week. They should be able to hand a Dallas team that has only scored 41 points. Nowak’s pick: Lions 27-24.

Jets at Jacksonville (-71⁄2): The Jaguars’ defense has allowed the least amount of points in the AFC with 44 and has the potential to pitch a shutout in this spot. Nowak’s pick: Jaguars 23-6.

Tampa Bay at Chicago (-3): This is a big test for resurgent Bucs quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick against one of the league’s best defensive teams. Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston returns from his three-game suspension but will sit this one out. A solid game from FitzMagic and he likely solidifies the starting gig for now. Nowak’s pick: Tampa Bay 24-17.

Philadelphia at Tennessee (+4): The Titans, 4-0 against the spread in their last four games at home, have been solid on defense and the offense has done enough to produce a 2-1 record. The Eagles are still dealing with injuries. Nowak’s pick: Titans 2017.

Seattle at Arizona (+3): Quarterback Josh Rosen takes over for Sam Bradford. It’s tough to go against Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson, but I think the Rosen-David JohnsonLarry Fitzgerald combo clicks for a win. Nowak’s pick: Cardinals 27-24.

Cleveland at Oakland (-21⁄2): The Raiders are 0-3 but its key offensive players have had their moments in different games this season, including Jordy Nelson last week with 173 yards and a touchdown. Derek Carr, Marshawn Lynch, Amari Cooper and Nelson haven’t been on the same page, but something tells me they click today for a big win. Nowak’s pick: Raiders 38-17.

San Francisco at Los Angeles Chargers (-10): The 49ers will be hardpressed to be competitive moving forward with the loss of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to an ACL injury. Nowak’s pick: Chargers 31-13.

New Orleans at Giants (+31⁄2): I think the Giants match up well enough here to be competitive with the Saints. The key will be the offensive line giving Eli Manning a few seconds to throw the ball. Nowak’s pick: Giants 30-27.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3): The key in this game is the Ravens defense. Nowak’s pick: Ravens 24-14.

MONDAY’S GAME

Kansas City at Denver (+5): Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes has shown no sign of slowing down as the most prolific passer in the NFL so far this season. In three games he has thrown for 896 yards and 13 touchdowns. Nowak’s pick: Chiefs 38-17.