Big point spreads just too tempting

As this season’s NFL bye weeks fade in the rearview mirror and we embark on the final five games of the regular season, this has always been my time of the season to shine as a handicapper.

In recent years I have had some very strong weeks in December and that has set up the part of the season where I have dominated against the spread in recent years — the playoffs.

Right now, we have Week 13 to contend with and those double-digit spreads keep coming and coming.

This week, we have four with Kansas City giving Oakland 141⁄2 points, Green Bay giving Arizona 14 points, the Los Angeles Rams giving Detroit 10 points and Seattle giving 10 points to San Francisco. While I see all four favorites coming away with wins, there are two games where the points look too good to pass up.

The Chiefs continue to have issues on defense and that should allow Oakland quarterback David Carr to put some points on the board. We’ll have to see how it shakes out, but the Chiefs released their top running back Kareen Hunt after a video came to light showing him shoving and kicking a woman. Hunt had been a big contributor to the Chiefs success.

The points will also have an impact in the RamsLions game. If this game was in Los Angeles, I could see the Rams’ potential to cover the 10-point spread. But this is in Detroit, where Matthew Stafford is still the quarterback, and that is where the Lions have played their best this season with a 3-3 record. As solid as the Rams are this season they have still allowed 282 points in 11 games.

The host Packers, who stink on the road (0-6) but have been solid at home (4-0-1), are playing for their playoff lives. They need this win and quarterback Aaron Rodgers will carry the Packers to a one-sided victory. The Green Bay defense should step up in this spot too.

Seattle is another team with a big advantage playing at home. Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson has been on fire in the last nine games with 20 touchdowns, only two interceptions and six wins. Seahawks win this one easy.

TODAY’S GAMES

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (+4): The Colts are on a five-game win streak and the Jaguars have lost seven in a row. The big problem for the Jags this week is the one-week loss of back Leonard Fournette who was suspended for fighting defensive end Shaq Lawson in the team’s last game against Buffalo. Nowak’s pick: Colts 27-14.

Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh (-31⁄2): This should be a fun game to watch with two of the game’s top quarterbacks facing off with Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger and Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers. The Steelers get the edge at home. Nowak’s pick: Steelers 30-24.

Carolina at Tampa Bay (+31⁄2): We’re looking at a home underdog cover in this spot. The Panthers struggle on the road (1-4) and the Buccaneers play better at home (3-2). Home underdogs have held their own this season going 3025-1 ATS according to teamrankings.com. Nowak’s pick: Buccaneers 27-24.

Baltimore at Atlanta (-11⁄2): The Ravens defense will keep this game close for a while, but just for a while. Nowak’s pick: Falcons 30-17.

Cleveland at Houston (-6): The Texans have been rolling on both sides of the ball and that has produced an eight-game win streak. Make it nine after this game. Nowak’s pick: Texans 30-17.

Buffalo at Miami (-4): The Bills have won two straight and the Dolphins have lost two straight. The key here is the tough Bills defense, which will keep this game close enough for Buffalo to pull out a win late. Nowak’s pick: Bills 23-20.

Chicago at Giants (+31⁄2): The Bears will be sending out backup quarterback Chase Daniels again. But the Bears defense will be the main factor here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Bears pick-6 or two in this game. Nowak’s pick: Bears 27-13.

Denver at Cincinnati (+5): Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton goes on IR and receiver A.J. Green returns from a toe injury. The big question is can backup quarterback Jeff Driskel get Green the ball? This looks like a perfect setup for the Broncos to extend their win streak to three games. Nowak’s pick: Broncos 24-17.

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit (+10): See above. Nowak’s pick: Rams 30-27.

Arizona at Green Bay (-14): See above. Nowak’s pick: Packers 34-13.

Kansas City at Oakland (-141⁄2): See above. Nowak’s pick: Chiefs 3023.

Jets at Tennessee (-8): Marcus Mariota has six touchdowns in his last four games and has thrown only one interception in those four games. He should be able to add to that touchdown total against the Jets weak defensive secondary. Nowak’s pick: Titans 2714.

Minnesota at New England (-5): The Patriots should be able to keep their unbeaten record at home in tact and go to to 6-0. But the Vikings defense won’t make it easy with a field goal determining the outcome. Nowak’s pick: Patriots 27-24.

San Francisco at Seattle (-10): See above. Nowak’s Pick: Seahawks 30-13.

MONDAY’S GAME

Washington at Philadelphia (-61⁄2): Both teams have given up more points than they have scored this season, so this should be a high-scoring game. The Carson Wentz-to-Zach Ertz connection will be the key for the Eagles. Nowak’s pick: Eagles 34-24.