Picking a pair of Week 14 ’dogs

Last week underdogs went 9-7 against the spread, and while the trend for that stat usually evens out, I see a a pair of underdogs that look pretty good this week for at least a cover.

One is the Indianapolis Colts who are getting 5 points playing at Houston.

Many handicappers are staying away from the Colts this week for several reasons, especially after getting shut out last week by Jacksonville. The Colts are a banged up this week with receiver Dontrelle Inman ruled out (shoulder) and a shoulder injury has wide receiver T.Y. Hilton questionable (game-time decision). The Colts have also struggled on the road (2-4) while the Texans have been rolling both at home and away with a nine-game win streak.

The key here is Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck who had been playing well before facing an inspired Jaguars defense last week. The Colts need to win to keep their playoffs alive and Luck had success against the Texans in Week 4 with 464 yards passing and four touchdown passes.

If Hilton is sidelined, Luck still has one of the best tight ends in the game to throw to with Eric Ebron who has caught 21 passes for 232 yards and five touchdowns in the Colts’ last five games. If Hilton is out Chester Rogers will have an increased presence. Rogers had his best game of the season against the Texans in week 4 with eight catches for 85 yards.

The Texans will likely win on the field, but I see a field goal being the difference in this game.

The other underdog I like this week is Chicago, a home underdog getting 3 points against the Los Angeles Rams.

While the Texans have been hot, this game has this season’s best defense (Bears) facing arguably the game’s best offense (Rams who are 11-1). The overunder in this game is 521⁄2, but I see it shaping up as a low-scoring affair with the Bears making life rough for quarterback Jared Goff, running back Todd Gurley and company.

I’ll call this an upset special with the Bears winning on the field. The offensive key in this game is Chicago starting quarterback Mitchell Trubisky returning from a shoulder injury.

TODAY’S GAMES

Baltimore at Kansas City (-61⁄2): I have to believe the loss of running back Kareem Hunt will hurt the Chiefs at some point, and it could be this game against this tough Ravens defense. Nowak’s pick: Ravens 27-24.

Indianapolis at Houston (-5): See above. Nowak’s pick: Texans 30-27.

Carolina at Cleveland (+11⁄2): The Panthers have struggled on the road at 1-5. But Carolina running back Christian McCaffrey has been dominant the past two games and I believe he carries the Panthers to victory. Nowak’s pick: Panthers 27-17.

Atlanta at Green Bay (-51⁄2): Tough to know how this game will go with Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy fired and both teams on extended losing streaks. Atlanta is on a four-game losing streak and Green Bay has lost three in a row. Take the points. Nowak’s pick: Packers 24-23.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+8): The Saints and Drew Brees should rebound from last week’s tough 13-10 loss to Dallas in a big way here. Nowak’s pick: Saints 40-17.

Jets at Buffalo (-3): Tough to back a team like the Jets who have lost six straight games. Buffalo’s defense dominates this one. Nowak’s pick: Bills 17-10.

New England at Miami (+71⁄2): The Patriots have struggled in recent seasons in Miami with the Dolphins winning four of the last five games over the Pats at home. Sometimes I make these picks the way President Trump decides on policy and staff changes — with my gut. My gut tells me the Pats are due for a blow-out win and this is the spot. Nowak’s pick: Patriots 41-16.

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago (+3): See above. Nowak’s pick: Bears 24-20.

Giants at Washington (+31⁄2): I have never been a Mark Sanchez fan and I have no reason to start now. The Giants should hand Washington its fourth straight loss. Nowak’s pick: Giants 34-13.

Denver at San Francisco (+4): Despite the injuries that keep mounting the Broncos have enough talent on both sides of the ball to keep their very faint playoff hopes alive. Nowak’s pick: Broncos 24-17.

Cincinnatti at Los Angeles Chargers (-14): No A.J. Green plus no Andy Dalton equals an easy win for the Chargers. Nowak’s pick: Chargers 38-13.

Detroit at Arizona (+3): The Lions have one win on the road and the Cardinals have one win at home. The stat that matters to me is the Lions have scored 254 points this season and the Cardinals only 175. Nowak’s pick: Lions 24-13.

Philadelphia at Dallas (-31⁄2): The Cowboys are clicking on both sides of the ball and I see Ezekiel Elliott dominating this game. Nowak’s pick: Cowboys 30-17.

Pittsburgh at Oakland (+10): The Steelers have a history of struggling on the road. But they haven’t been too bad in 2018 with a 4-1-1 road record. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the passing game will be tough to stop against the weak Raiders defense. Nowak’s pick: Steelers 30-14.

MONDAY’S GAME

Minnesota at Seattle (-31⁄2): The Seahawks are tough at home and quarterback Russell Wilson has been hot since the team’s bye in Week 7. Since the return from the bye week Wilson has thrown for 16 touchdowns in six games. Nowak’s pick: Seahawks 27-17.