New Haven Register (Sunday) (New Haven, CT)
GameTimeCT’s CIAC football playoff scenarios
It’s that time of year again. Yes, Thanksgiving, but more important for us high school football aficionados, it’s time to start crunching CIAC playoff numbers to see who’s in, who’s out and who’s praying for a spot in the state playoffs.And, haven’t you heard, we’re back to SIX playoff divisions this year. But this time we’re bringing eight teams in per class for an unprecedented 48 teams who will be eligible to play past Thanksgiving week (at the expense of infuriating a few more hockey and basketball coaches).
The playoff expansion — which we’ve panned ad nauseum all season — also means more and more teams are qualifying before Thanksgiving. As of Saturday morning, with two games to play, there were 37 teams that had unofficially clinched playoff spots according our calculations. There are now only 11 spots up for grabs.Below, we take a look at who’s still alive for those playoff spots and what they need to get there.
FOR THE UNINITIATED
Teams get 100 points for a victory, and then 10 points for every one of those opponents’ victories — which are called ‘bonus points’ here.
There are modifications. If a team defeats a team in in higher playoff class they get additional points. With the CIAC moving to six divisions, they simplified it by grouping them into three blocks, Ls, Ms and Ss. Teams that beat an opponent from two higher classes get 30 additional points, one higher class is 10 additional points.
Last year, the CIAC added a new wrinkle: an additional five points for every victory earned by every opponent on your schedule — whether you beat them or not. It’s effectively a strength-of-schedule modifier added to placate the teams and leagues involved in the Connecticut High School Football Scheduling Alliance, who otherwise would be taking a big risk playing tough crossover games.
This strength-of-schedule modifier is why you’ll see a handful of teams with an extra loss ranked higher than teams with better records.
Added together, your team’s total points are divided by the number of games played to get their playoff point average. The best eight averages qualify.
To determine where your team’s playoff hopes stand, you must calculate the range of points your team can collect with a victory and with a loss and then compare your potential range to other teams’ point potentials.
If any of that made sense to you, great! (Could you check our math??) If not, just ignore it and at least pretend we know what we’re doing.
This is the 2022 CIAC Playoff Picture as of Saturday morning, Nov. 19: CLASS LL
THEY’RE IN! (8-of-8) — Greenwich (8-1), West Haven (9-0), Southington (8-1), Staples (8-1), Hamden (8-1), Trumbull (7-2), Fairfield Prep (6-3), Glastonbury (7-2).
HOME COOKIN’ (2of-4) — Greenwich (8-1), West Haven (9-0).
THE SKINNY: The eight spots are set, and now it’s just seeding them. Greenwich and West Haven can each clinch spots in the top two with a win.
Southington clinches a home game with a win, or if both Hamden and Staples lose. It definitely gets a spot in the top two if it wins and Greenwich loses; if it wins and West Haven loses, it’ll be close but Southington goes in with an edge. If Staples wins and Hamden loses, Staples will claim a home game. If both win, it’ll come down to points, with Staples having a slightly higher ceiling. If Staples wins and Southington loses, there’s an outside shot the Wreckers could eke ahead of Southington. If Staples loses and other teams around them win, it’s a points slog for that home game. Glastonbury can finish no higher than fourth and needs the four teams ahead of it to lose to have a chance, and that’s only if it beats Simsbury on Saturday. Trumbull, Fairfield Prep and Glastonbury can’t get home games if they lose.
CLASS L
THEY’RE IN! (5-8) — St. Joseph (8-1), Naugatuck (8-1), Newtown (8-1), New Canaan (8-1), Maloney (8-1).
HOME COOKIN’ (1-4) — St. Joseph (8-1).
WIN & YOU’RE IN — Cheshire (6-3), Darien (6-3), New Milford (6-3).
A LITTLE HELP HERE?? — Shelton (5-4).
THE SKINNY: As much as it looks messy, this class is pretty straightforward. If
St. Joseph beats Trumbull it’s the top seed. Wins by
Naugatuck (vs. Ansonia) and Newtown (vs. Masuk) clinches a home game for those teams. The final one comes down to either New Canaan or Maloney, with New Canaan holding the bonus edge to outpoint the Spartans.Of course, if either Newtown or Naugatuck lose, they can still capture home games. And if both lose it would be a bonus race between those two for the final home game.It’s a four-way race for the last three spots. Cheshire, Darien and New Milford are all in with wins.
Shelton needs to win, get one of them to lose, preferably New Milford or Darien, since they share too many bonus games with Cheshire (and even benefit from the Rams beating Southington).
CLASS MM
THEY’RE IN! (5 of 8) — SMSA (10-0), Northwest United (9-0), Killingly (8-1), Wethersfield (8-1), Thames River (9-0).
HOME COOKIN’ (1 of 4)— SMSA (top seed).
WIN & YOU’RE IN — Masuk (7-2), North Haven (7-2), Platt (6-3).
A LITTLE HELP HERE?? — Windsor (6-3.
HAIL MARY — Guilford (6-3), Wilton (7-3), E.O. Smith (6-3).
THE SKINNY: Seriously: If Windsor loses Saturday and Platt loses on Thanksgiving, and Guilford and E.O. Smith win, it’s a points battle for eighth.Heck, if Masuk and
North Haven lose, too, it could be a points battle for sixth. If Platt and Windsor both lose, though, Masuk clinches, and North Haven is within 30 points of in.Windsor is eliminated Saturday with a loss. If it wins, it’s in if Platt loses, or if Masuk or North Haven lose and the points fall right.Platt is in with a win and probably out with a loss. (EVERY SINGLE THING would have to go Platt’s way with a loss. But it had a decent start at that on Friday.)If Windsor wins and Platt loses, Windsor is in. If they both win, it comes down to points, and both have a lot of possibilities and none in common. If both win and Masuk or North Haven lose, Masuk and North Haven could get dragged into that points race.If BOTH Windsor and Platt lose... the door is open for Guilford with a win. Its ceiling is higher than Wilton’s, and there’s an outside chance it could catch North Haven with a North Haven loss. Wilton, whose regular season ended Nov. 10, has a reasonable shot, particularly if Guilford loses, in this scenario, though it has to hold off E.O. Smith: A win for E.O. costs Wilton 15 potential points and puts their ceilings just 20 points apart.Guilford and E.O. Smith are each eliminated with a loss. (E.O. Smith’s only chance is Windsor, Guilford and Platt losing and the points falling just right against Wilton and Platt.)SMSA clinched the top seed Friday night. Northwest United and Killingly clinch home games if they win, and Northwest United would secure the second seed if it wins. If Hall wins on Saturday, Wethersfield can clinch a home game with a win, too. Losses for any of them open the door (and we are talking absolute lightning-strike here, much the way it gets in with a loss) for Masuk or North Haven or Platt to slide up with wins.
CLASS M
THEY’RE IN! (6 of 8) — Berlin (10-0), Law (8-1), Abbott Tech/Immaculate (8-1), Rockville (7-2), Notre Dame-West Haven (6-3), RHAM (6-3).
HOME COOKIN’ (1 of 4)— Berlin (top seed).
A LITTLE HELP HERE?? — Hartford Public (5-4), Branford (4-5), East Lyme (4-5).
HAIL MARY — Woodstock Academy (4-5), Lyman Hall (4-5), Avon (4-5).
SEE YOU NEXT YEAR — Watertown (3-6).
THE SKINNY: Aside from top-seeded Berlin, nobody yet has a guaranteed home game. Law and
ATI can clinch home games with wins. If they do and there’s only one homegame spot for Notre Dame or Rockville, it comes down to points, unless one wins and one loses. Notre Dame’s ceiling is higher. Second place will come down to points, unless only one of those four teams wins.RHAM will be the sixth seed unless it loses and Hartford Public wins and the bonus points fall appropriately.Hartford
Public took itself out of win-and-in territory with its Rocky Hill forfeit on Friday. It’s still in with a win if either Branford or East Lyme loses. It is not quite out with a loss.Branford and East Lyme, similarly, are not quite in with a win alone nor out with a loss alone. If both win, their ceilings are 10 points apart, and East Lyme will actually have the higher ceiling, because Branford only maxes out if Waterford beats East Lyme. They’d also be rooting for different teams in a handful of other games. (Branford will win any tiebreaker in which it may find itself, though.) If both win and Hartford Public loses, Branford is in and East Lyme probably only needs a couple of bonuses, unless Woodstock Academy also wins, in which case it injects itself into a two-teamsout-of-three points chase.
Woodstock Academy, Lyman Hall, Avon and
Watertown are all elimnated with a loss. Woodstock has the easiest path with a win, but it also has the toughest ask, facing formerly ranked Killingly. Lyman Hall needs Branford and East Lyme to lose, Woodstock either to lose or miss out on almost all its bonuses, and points to fall right against Branford. Avon’s and Watertown’s hopes start with Branford, East Lyme and Woodstock Academy all losing.
CLASS SS
THEY’RE IN! (4-of-8) — Foran (9-0), Cromwell (8-1), Windham (8-1), Granby/Canton (8-2).
HOME COOKIN’ (0 of 4)— (Foran’s close, but ...).
WIN & YOU’RE IN — Ledyard (8-1), Barlow (7-2), Rocky Hill (7-2).
A LITTLE HELP HERE?? — Gilbert/NW/ Housy (7-2), Valley Regional/Old Lyme (8-1), Ellington (7-2).
THE SKINNY: As much as Class M is struggling to find worthy teams, Class SS has far too many. We actually might see an 8-2 team or — worse — a 9-1 Valley squad miss out. That’s how convoluted this class is compared to the rest.
Foran is the top seed with a win over Law. It’s just a bonus game away from clinching a home game, anyway. Cromwell/Portland, Windham and
Granby/Canton (barely) are in. Cromwell and Windham will nab home games with victories. Ledyard, Barlow, Rocky Hill can grab three of the last four spots with wins. The last spot would come down to Gilbert/Northwestern/Housy, Valley Regional/Old Lyme and
Ellington. GNH would eclipse the other two if Torrington beats Watertown, which would give the Yellowjackets 15 points and push them to an insurmountable 1375 points. If not, it would likely tie VROL at 1360. So Valley needs to beat H-K to finish 9-1 and get any one of the teams that haven’t clinched to lose. Ellington needs to beat Rockville and see two of those teams lose, including Valley.
CLASS S
THEY’RE IN! (7-of-8) — Ansonia (9-0), Holy Cross (7-2), Bloomfield (7-2), Woodland (7-2), New Fairfield (7-2), East Catholic (6-3), Seymour (6-3).
HOME COOKIN’ (2 of 4)— Ansonia (top seed), Holy Cross.
WIN & YOU’RE IN —
Haddam-Killingworth (6-3).
A LITTLE HELP HERE?? — North Branford (5-4)
THE SKINNY: Bloomfield and Woodland can clinch home games with wins or a New Fairfield loss. New Fairfield clinches a home game with a win and a Woodland loss, or with a win, a Bloomfield loss and the right points. Cool numbers fun: If Seymour beats Woodland,
they’d tie in points if Wolcott beats Holy Cross, and Seymour would finish higher on the head-to-head tiebreaker. (This is the only way Seymour can get a home game, if New Fairfield also loses... but see below.) But if Seymour wins and Holy Cross wins, Woodland edges Seymour anyway. Following from this, East Catholic has a needle-thread path to a home game: Beat Northwest Catholic, max out its points (or very nearly so) AND get wins from Seymour, New Milford, Wolcott and the Gilbert co-op. Simple. With a win on Tuesday vs. Valley Regional/Old Lyme, HaddamKillingworth is in, conceivably as high as the fifth seed. If HK loses then Wednesday night decides the last spot: If North Branford AND Morgan AND the Stafford co-op win, the spot is North Branford’s. Anything else leaves it to HK, whether outright or on a head-to-head tiebreaker, a one-point win on Oct. 21.