NOW GO TO KELL!
Jays’ Johnson is my type of guy
THERE’S NO ONE I’d rather have on my fantasy team than Kelly Johnson.
Wait, what? There’s no one I’d rather have than a .222-hitting Blue Jay second baseman? Sort of.
Actually, the person I want on my fantasy team more than anyone else is Miguel Cabrera. And after him, Albert Pujols. I could list over 100 players I would prefer to have than Mr. Johnson, but at the end of the day, he’d be the one I’m most happy about seeing on my roster. And that’s because of where I had to take him.
Value is the most important instrument of measurement in fantasy. How much did you pay for a player, and how much does he put out. Get enough $10 players to give $20 output, and the championship is in your hands.
So when I say I like Kelly Johnson — or anyone, for that matter, now and throughout the season — I’m talking relative to their market value.
Johnson doesn’t have a lot of razzle-dazzle. He’s not a young prospect entering the bigs for the first time, or a hot free agent that landed in a hitters’ ballpark. He’s a run-ofthe-mill second baseman coming off a down year in which he was swapped for Aaron Hill, who was similarly in the hitting doldrums.
But in fantasy, we’re paying for what our players will do in 2012, not 2011. And Kelly Johnson this year won’t be like Kelly Johnson last year. Not even close.
Johnson’s BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play for the sabremetric challenged) in 2011 was .277. Low, to be sure, but not low enough to warrant much mention. The catch is, his XBABIP (which takes into account the difference between a line drive and an infield popup) had him at .332. So while his BABIP was fairly ordinary, the difference between his XBABIP and BABIP was a whopping 55 points — one of the highest in the league. This suggests there’s no reason that Johnson’s batting average can’t fly right back up again. Remember, he hit .284 in 2010.
And did I mention Johnson might be hitting in front of Jose Bautista? With a corrected average, it seems to me that K.J. will have no problem being driven around the bases.
Before I get into the rest of my lineup of sleepers, I want to briefly talk about that word: sleeper. When I drop the s-word, I am, again, talking about value. No one is “sleeping” on Curtis Granderson, but I like these guys for how much they’ll cost you. So without further ado, let’s meet the guys who will bring you home fantasy gold.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks
First base is surprisingly shallow. There are seven strong, prototypical first basemen, and then there’s everyone else. I recommend grabbing one of those top seven, but if you fall short or need a corner infielder, Goldschmidt is the guy. Thirty-eight home runs between Double-a and the majors last season. Pencil him in for at least 25 this time around.
Brandon Beachy, SP, Braves
What’s not to love? 10.74 K/9 with a BB/9 under 3. Peripheral stats (such as Fielding Independent Pitching) say he wasn’t lucky, so why can’t he extrapolate 2011 to a full
season?
Dan Uggla, 2B, Braves
Another XBABIP wonderboy, I’m still waiting for the boost he should have received after leaving Miami’s old ballpark for Atlanta’s Turner Field. I say it happens in 2012.
Emilio Bonifacio, 3B/SS/OF, Marlins
I’d expect .260, not .290, but the steals will definitely be there. As soon as the Marlins missed on Yoenis Cespedes, he was assured playing time, so use him at shortstop where he has the most value.
Matt Garza, SP, Cubs
He changed his approach in 2011, and it was for the better. His strikeout numbers were back to normal and he was inducing more ground balls, which means that his low ERA was for real.
Kevin Youkilis, 3B, Red Sox
I’m not letting an injury-riddled 2011 cloud my judgment on the Greek God of Walks. Everyone else, apparently, is.
Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners
Nothing changed, except for the BABIP, which dropped 58 points. It should erode with his declining speed, but not this quickly.
Josh Johnson, SP, Marlins
If he’s healthy, he’ll be worth it. I’m pushing my chips in on this one.
Ramon Hernandez, C, Rockies
Old and worn down, but Hernandez was once a fantasy stud. He was good last year, too, but no one noticed because he was splitting time behind the plate. Now he’s the primary guy in Coors Field.