Might as well watch football
The decline of party conventions
American television viewers will have a big choice to make on Wednesday, Sept. 5: Eli Manning or Bill Clinton. The dueling events are the NFL season opener, featuring the Giants hosting the Dallas Cowboys, and the second night of the Democratic National Convention, starring the ex-President.
About 27 million people watched last year’s NFL season opener; about 24 million watched the second-to-last night of the Democratic convention in 2008, which also featured Clinton. And that was on a non-football evening.
That Americans, given the choice, will probably prefer football to politics is a commentary on the importance — or lack thereof — of both party conventions.
Conventions once had actual significance, but the identity of a party’s presidential nominee hasn’t been in much doubt heading into the event since the Gerald Ford-Ronald Reagan battle came down to the 1976 Kansas City convention.
Into the 1980s, the conventions still retained some drama because the candidates’ running mates were oftentimes announced during the gatherings.
For instance, Reagan announced his pick of George H.W. Bush on the final day of the 1980 Republican convention. Eight years later, Bush chose Dan Quayle on the second day of his nominating convention. But now these selections are made several days or weeks in advance.
Robbed of their historic purposes, the conventions now serve as infomercials. They’re scheduled around Labor Day, when many are enjoying summer’s last gasp. Television coverage is much reduced on the big networks compared to decades past, and the vast majority of channels ignore the party conclaves entirely.
Almost every word uttered on the podium is pre-scripted and sanitized. Analysts and reporters become speech coaches, dissecting the effectiveness of each address — and it is a lot less riveting than “America’s Got Talent.”
For political nerds, it makes for fun viewing. Whether any of it affects voters is a different story, given that only 5% to 10% of voters are undecided in this election, and many of them don’t watch. Mainly, it’s the partisans cheering their Red or Blue team.
Usually, but not always, candidates get a poll bounce out of their conventions, but that bounce often fades. This election is shaping up to be a close affair that is an enthusiasm contest between the two party bases, much like George W. Bush’s victory over John Kerry in 2004. That year, Kerry didn’t get any bounce, according to the Gallup polls of registered voters taken before and after his late-July convention. A month later, Gallup reported a mere 2% bounce for Bush.
Leading up to the conventions, announcements about the roster of speakers serve as catnip for reporters — most recently, as they awaited Mitt Romney’s choice for running mate.
So when former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was named as a GOP headliner, the press finally crossed her name off the list of vice-presidential possibilities, as if Romney was ever going to choose a prochoice, senior Bush administration official for his ticket.
The Democrats picked San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro as their keynote speaker, in a nod to the crucial Hispanic voting bloc.
The first Hispanic keynote speaker in the history of the Democratic convention will surely hope to make a bigger mark than the first Hispanic Republican keynote speaker, Katherine Ortega.
Readers asking, “Who?” are forgiven for not recognizing the then-United States Treasurer, who keynoted the 1984 RNC with a forgettable talk.
Other keynotes were more memorable, but not of lasting importance. Ann Richards made her famous remark about George H.W. Bush while keynoting the 1988 Democratic convention — “Poor George, he can’t help it. He was born with a silver foot in his mouth.” — and she got a boost toward winning the Texas governorship two years later.
Then-state Sen. Barack Obama dazzled in his 2004 keynote, the first big step toward his White House win four years later. Yet Richards and Obama were speaking at conventions designed to help bolster Michael Dukakis and John Kerry, so whatever good the speeches did wasn’t enough.
Clinton will likely give a solid speech on Obama’s behalf. But then again, Bubba’s visage could also prompt memories of the “good old days” of the roaring Clinton economy — quite a contrast with the incumbent’s jobs numbers.
Until we get another year when the primaries aren’t able to crown a presidential winner, the conventions will mainly be reunion sites for political scribes and hacks, quadrennial orgies of partisan excess. Welcome to Tampa and Charlotte!