TIME TO MEET LUIS?
With one of game’s best pens, Yanks must choose between trading for average starter or taking shot on prospect Severino
From the start, you knew this season in the Bronx was going to be mostly about sick days. The many predictions of doom for the Yankees back in April weren’t a commentary on talent so much as a logical skepticism that the oldest roster in the majors could suddenly stay healthy and productive.
For the most part, however, they’ve defied the odds to this point, and, surprise, surprise, they should be considered favorites now to win the division.
Avoiding the disabled list remains pivotal, obviously. In particular, Mark Teixiera, Alex Rodriguez, Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda, all of whom have been injury-prone, obviously need to go to the post regularly for these Yankees to be playing in October for the first time since 2012. But is that enough? The most notable performance-based flaw that has emerged, other than the mysteriously shaky defense at times that you’d think should improve, is the starting pitching.
Tanaka, who did spend a month on the DL, and Pineda, at times have been the dominant 1-2 at the top of the rotation the Yankees need. But their inconsistency raises the question of whether this team can make it to the finish line with CC Sabathia and Nate Eovaldi holding up the back end.
That is, do they need to improve their starting rotation, or is having a killer bullpen enough to make do? The pitching rankings in the AL make you wonder.
Consider that the Yankees’ starting pitchers have a 4.24 ERA, which ranks 11th in the league. The Royals, who have the best record in the AL at 52-34, rank right behind the Yankees with a starters’ ERA of 4.32.
Of course, the Royals also have the No. 1-ranked bullpen in the league, with a 2.18 ERA, and we saw how far their relievers took them last season.
The Yankees, meanwhile, rank fifth with a 3.45 bullpen ERA, and even that’s skewed a bit by some bad outings from the likes of David Carpenter, who has since been traded, and Esmil Rogers, who is now in the minors.
With Adam Warren in the bullpen now, and lefties Justin Wilson and Chasen Shreve becoming more and more dependable ahead of Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller, I’d make the case the Yankees’ pen is right there with that of the Royals as the best in the league.
OK, one more set of rankings worth noting: the A’s, who have the worst record in the AL, rank first in the league in starting pitching ERA, at 3.01, but 14th with a bullpen ERA of 4.32.
Yes, the game is more and more about bullpens, and if you’ve been watching Yankee games, you know how quick Joe Girardi has been to get starters out of the game at times, especially Sabathia and Eovaldi.
“It’s not just the Yankees, it’s a trend around the league,” an AL scout said on Thursday. “And a lot of it is coming from the front office. GMs want their managers to manage by the numbers that tell them you’re better off going to the pen than letting an average or below-average starter go a third time around the lineup.”
For the most part Girardi’s quick hooks have paid off, but does there come a point when the bullpen can’t handle the workload?
That’s a question GM Brian Cashman surely has to consider over the next couple of weeks approaching the trade deadline.
It seems clear Cashman and the Yankees are determined to keep top prospects Luis Severino, Aaron Judge, Greg Bird and perhaps the newly promoted Rob Refsnyder as well.
But how much the front office thinks they need help in the rotation will determine how aggressively they pursue someone such as Mike Leake, whose 4.08 ERA with the Reds may or may not translate to the AL as an upgrade.
There are other questions pertinent to a possible trade: do the Yankees truly believe Sabathia will ever figure out how to pitch effectively with his reduced velocity? Or do they see his 5.47 ERA as an indication of what he is now?
Similarly, has a half-season of watching hitters tattoo Eovaldi’s 98-mph fastball convince them he’ll never get over the hump and become a dependable starter?
Finally, there is perhaps the most intriguing question of all: Do they think Severino, who has a 1.95 ERA after nine Triple-A starts, will be ready for the big leagues over the next several C weeks? ashman’s history says it’s more likely he’ll make a deal for a Brandon McCarthy type as he did last year. But if the move is not going to be for a differencemaker, perhaps the margin for error the Yankee bullpen provides would convince the GM to give Severino a shot instead.
That might be enough for this team. As long as it continues to defy the age-and-injury odds, which almost nobody thought was possible.