THE ALARMING TRUTH ABOUT TODAY'S TERROR THREAT
Spanning the globe and scrutinizing local preparedness, former NYPD official says America is in greater danger than any time since 9/11
II have worked in counterterrorism since the 1980s, and I have come to this disheartening conclusion: The threat of terrorism in the nation’s homeland is worse now that it has been since 2001. The dramatic deterioration of the security conditions across the Islamic world — coupled with a degree of complacency at home — is responsible for this situation.
The first reason for my grim assessment: Since the so-called Arab Spring of 2011, the breadth and depth of conflict raging across the Islamic world has grown dramatically.
Four nations are completely broken and in engulfed in devastating wars with no end in sight: Yemen, Syria, Somalia and Libya.
In at least four other nations — including western Pakistan, several provinces of Afghanistan, large sections of Iraq and northern Mali — there are large areas persistent conflict and jihadi presence.
If you add Boko Haram fighting areas in the Nigeria-Niger-Cameroon border area, terrorists in the Egyptian Sinai, the bloody sectarian attacks in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh, and extremists in the southern Philippines, the picture becomes even more troubling.
The United States has not always been helpful. Three armies that we trained and equipped collapsed in front of different jihadi militia in the past several years, providing tons of equipment to terrorist groups.
After a military coup in Mali in early 2012, Army units north of the Niger River fell to a Taureg tribal rebellion coupled with local Al Qaeda and other jihadi elements. Although Libyan arms played a role in this breakdown, French intelligence informed us that many of the captured weapons in the French counter offensive in January of 2013 were indeed American weapons captured from Mali units that deserted in 2012.
Between January and June of 2014, the world watched in horror as the Iraqi Army collapsed in front of ISIS units — leaving behind tons of American arms and ammunition, including tanks and armored vehicles.
The third collapse was in Yemen — when, between September 2014 and February of 2015, the Yemeni Army, funded with several hundred million dollars of U.S. aid, also collapsed in front of a militia in Toyota trucks with mounted machine guns.
We cannot allow this to happen again. We must stand by our allies, especially during their most difficult times. This will be critical for Afghanistan in the years ahead. We cannot “pull the plug” on them for whatever reason, or we will pay a far larger price when their army collapses and Al Qaeda comes roaring back.
Layered on top of these conflicts is a growing power struggle for regional dominance between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Iran, a radical and corrupt revolutionary theocracy that has supported Hezbollah aggression since the 1980s, is expanding this model by supporting other Shia militia groups in Iraq, Syria and Yemen in an attempt to gain power and influence over Shia populations throughout the Muslim world.
Saudi Arabia, for its part, has long been exporting its own brand of Wahhabi ideology throughout the Islamic world — contributing to the radicalism within moderate Sunni communities and exacerbating tensions with local Shia populations. Saudi Arabia and Iran are now conducting dangerous proxy wars in Yemen and the Levant, sending more arms and fighters into this ever-growing cauldron of violence and hatred.
Egypt and Turkey — perhaps the two most important Sunni countries in the region — are both troubled. Egypt is struggling to provide jobs for its millions of unemployed youth, but its tourist industry and the overall investment climate is undermined by persistent political instability and terrorist violence. They need our steadfast support.
In Turkey, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to expand his power and strangle any moderate opposition, as he continues to bend his country into something that looks more like an Iranian theocracy rather than a westernleaning European democracy.
As if all of this is not enough, the example of Tunisia is even more depressing in some ways. Since the Arab Spring, Tunisia has been the model of Arab modernization — politically, socially and economically. Yet, despite doing everything right, we know that on a per-capita basis, Tunisia sends more jihadis to fight with ISIS than any other country.
In the past year, the United States and its allies have made some progress against this grim scenario. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter and the generals at the Pentagon have nudged the Obama administration into a more aggressive presence in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and North Africa — mainly with increased Special Forces advisers, combat aviation, intelligence support and the occasional direct action attack by drone aircraft or by Special Operations forces.
In Yemen, the Saudis have led a brutal air campaign, which has enabled President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi to return. And Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has abandoned some of its previously held territory.
In Mali, French forces, supported by U.S. intelligence, continue to hammer Al Qaeda’s local branch — but the situation seems to be deteriorating in the past few months. In Syria, we are doing more — as the President has finally authorized U.S. forces to operate inside Syria and has approved more troops for Iraq as allied units prepare to take on Mosul. But even these commitments pale in comparison to the efforts made by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and their Shia militia units.
In sum, we have improved our efforts over the past year. But the cumulative cost
BE OUR GUEST BY MICHAEL SHEEHAN