Chained to Trump
GOP dilemma: Base loves him even as most N.Y.ers loathe him
ALBANY — While President Trump remains highly unpopular in his home state of New York, Republicans looking to run statewide should break ranks with him at their own peril, GOP political consultants warn.
No matter how moderate or conservative GOP candidates are, the Democrats will seek to tie them to Trump, who received just a third of the vote in New York in 2016 and polls show continues to have extremely low popularity numbers.
But that’s statewide. GOP consultants say that polls also show Trump doing well in Suffolk County, parts of Nassau and upstate.
A Republican who completely breaks ranks from the President and trashes him risks alienating voters in those areas and the GOP base, which still supports Trump.
“Trump is a tricky issue, especially when it comes to keeping the base,” said GOP consultant David Catalfamo, a former top aide to ex-Gov. George Pataki. “Upstate he’s popular. He’s terrific. New York City, outside of Staten Island, they hate him. And it’s different in the suburbs.”
Catalfamo said Republican candidates need to borrow from what made Trump popular nationally last year — the image of an outsider focused on breaking the status quo.
Another prominent Republican operative, who asked for anonymity, agreed that statewide GOP candidates can’t run entirely away from Trump.
“New York is so diverse,” the consultant said. “With Trump, he does cut both ways. In some areas, it’s going to be headwinds. In others, it's going to be tailwinds. That’s what’s going to very difficult.”
The rank-and-file Republicans, the consultant said, are not going to get behind a candidate who says they voted for Hillary Clinton over Trump or anyone who might be lukewarm about the President.
“The smartest thing you can say is, ‘I felt between he and Hillary, I voted for an agenda that meant jobs and you’re seeing the results.’ You can also say, ‘I certainly take exception with x, y and z, like the tweets.’ But the biggest thing is the national economy, security and a need for change,” the operative said.
How a statewide candidate handles the Trump dilemma, particularly gubernatorial candidates, could impact voter enthusiasm and turnout, which in turn could affect downballot congressional and state Senate races, consultants say.
Of course, getting too cozy with Trump carries its own risks, given New York is such a heavily blue state and Democrats are expected to continue to use him as a bogeyman up and down the ballot, the consultants agree.
Assembly GOP Minority Leader Brian Kolb, who has already announced a run for governor, said he’s prepared for the anti-Trump attacks.
“Trump is not a factor,” Kolb, of Canandaigua, recently told the Daily News. “My name is not Brian Trump. It’s Brian Kolb. If Donald Trump does good things for New York, I will support it. If he does bad things for New York, I will not support it. My priority is New York
State.”
lll Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie said he does not expect the ongoing feud between Gov. Cuomo and Mayor de Blasio will severely impact the city.
Heastie (D-Bronx) noted that the city is a key constituency for Cuomo as he heads into his 2018 reelection year.
“He polls best in the City of New York, so I think it behooves all of us to do right by the city," Heastie said.
lll Businessman and liberal activist Bill Samuels, who helped finance the unsuccessful ballot referendum in November to create a constitutional convention, is now backing a bill to make it easier for child sex abuse victims to seek justice as adults.
Samuels will take part in a press conference by advocates Tuesday calling on Gov. Cuomo to include the Child Victims Act in his State of the State address Wednesday and his upcoming state budget proposal.