Trump rolls the dice

The President of the United States’ Twitter tirade against a nuclear power could have life-and-death consequences for Americans and our allies. No, not that nuclear power. We speak of Donald Trump unleashing every imaginable invective at the government of Pakistan, insisting that “The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools.

“They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more!”

As it often does these days, formal policy followed angry outburst:

Thursday, three days after the tweet, the Trump administration suspended nearly all security aid to Islamabad, potentially yanking more than $1 billion in annual help to a nation that is on the front lines of the war against global radical Islamic terrorism.

Trump is not altogether wrong in his diagnosis. Pakistan has for years been two-faced, helping the United States capture and kill members of Al Qaeda even as it gives arms and rupees and shelter to enemies of the United States like the Taliban and the Haqqani network.

So profound have its failures been, Osama Bin Laden himself set up shop less than a mile from the country’s top military academy. Because of a well-founded American belief that elements of Pakistan’s spy agency were in touch with Al Qaeda, U.S. Special Forces went in, and took out the terrorist mastermind, without informing our ostensible partner.

But, but, but: Critics can afford to nitpick sometimes double-dealing countries. When American commanders-in-chief do so — even as they rely upon what cooperation remains to make inroads against killers — they play a risky game indeed.

After all, America relies on the Pakistani military daily to coordinate strikes against terrorists in the country and in the lawless mountainous region between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

As our war effort surges, for a second time now, in Afghanistan, we need Pakistani cooperation for air and land supply routes and, ultimately, to facilitate talks with the Taliban.

There’s a chance that withholding aid will force the powers that be in Islamabad to look hard at their own behavior and turn more decisively toward American interests.

Or, just as likely, the insults from an American President and clear and present prospect of isolation could force Pakistan — a democracy where domestic pressures and tensions with India drive most policy — into deeper alliance with our enemies.

Not to mention cement a growing alliance with China, which is already building military bases there. Just hours after Trump’s 280-character fusillade, Pakistan announced it would replace the U.S. dollar with the yuan for its bilateral trade with Beijing.

And, oh yeah, there is that Pakistani nuclear arsenal, which must never, ever fall into more hostile hands.

Maintaining international alliances to fight the war on terror is a delicate business. Donald Trump’s penchant for pushing buttons could easily backfire.