ONE GIANT MISTAKE!
Big Blue will regret letting Sam fall to Jets in favor of Saquon
The Jets might have solved their most annoying problem with help from the one team that wants them to fail miserably. The Giants’ massive mistake of gift-wrapping Sam Darnold to Gang Green will be debated for the next decade. Did Dave Gettleman pass on the next great quarterback in favor of a running back?
Although Saquon Barkley promises to electrify in the short term, the Giants brain trust’s significant miscalculation centers on their faith in a fading old quarterback. Gettleman can marginalize critiques from the analytics community about positional value until the cows come home, but here’s the cold, harsh truth: Eli Manning has been leaking oil for two years.
At best, the 37-year-old two-time Super Bowl MVP looks like a slightly below average player. At worst, he looks like one of those guys rolling down a hill chasing a block of cheese. Strip away all the sentimentality surrounding one of the classiest and clutch players in Giants history and here’s what’s left: A guy with a two-year shelf life… maybe.
Gettleman had an incredible opportunity to draft Manning’s successor without any pressure to start the rookie right away. It would have been a gradual transition without immediate pressure. Manning would have passed the baton to Darnold either later this season or next. It made sense on every level.
Gettleman’s belief that “if you have to try to make yourself fall in love with a player, it is wrong” because “you will never be happy with the pick” is a reasonable stance, prompting the obvious question: Why the hell weren’t the Giants in love with Darnold, whose skillset, makeup and potential made him the top signal caller for most teams?
The Giants hope never to duplicate their franchise-worst 13-loss season. It’s likely that they won’t be picking No. 2 in the draft again anytime soon. So why pass on a guy with traits to be a star at the most important position in this sport.
“There’s a ton of room for growth,” Darnold said Friday at his introductory press conference on One Jets Drive. “That’s the thing I’m really excited about. Just being 20 years old, I know that there’s a lot of room for growth. But I’m also very confident in my ability to go out there and play.”
Gettleman’s mistake was not believing in Barkley, who has the makings of being a difference maker. His mistake was believing in Manning, who has the NFL’s worst completion percentage in the last five years to go along with declining passer ratings in three consecutive years. More than that, anyone with the gift of sight is fully aware that Manning is limping to the finish line of his accomplished career.
It’s a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately industry with no room for sentimentality. Pairing Darnold with Manning would have been the right call.
For all of Barkley’s prodigious gifts, consider the shelf life for running backs taken in the Top 10 compared to quarterbacks taken in the Top 10. Six running backs have been true difference makers in the prior 20 drafts (dating back to 1998) excluding those in the prior three drafts, who don’t have a large enough sample size. Adrian Peterson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James, Ricky Williams and Fred Taylor were definitely Top 10 worthy, but only one (Lewis) even appeared in a Super Bowl.
Ten QBs selected in the Top 10 during that same 20-year span (excluding Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, who have small sample sizes) were true difference makers: Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Mike Vick, Donovan McNabb and Peyton Manning.
If you can squeeze six top-end seasons out of a running back, count your blessings. Most good ball carriers tack on about three largely worthless seasons before calling it quits at age 30-32. The Curse of 30 is real. Most of them fall apart in their late 20s. To wit, the over/under on Jaguars star running back Leonard Fournette’s surgeries by 2020: Three.
It’s a brutal position that teams recycle every few years. Factor in that this draft is particularly deep at running back and it makes the Giants’ decision that much more confounding.
Elite quarterbacks, meanwhile, can thrive in their early-to-mid 30s. The Jets will groom Darnold, who won’t even turn 21 until June, to get them to a place they haven’t been in a half century.
“I think winning a Super bowl is everyone’s goal entering a season, whether I’m a backup or whether I’m a starting quarterback,” Darnold said. “Everyone on the team wants to win a Super Bowl. That’s the goal for everyone. Anything short of that is a failure. .... Whatever my role is, I’m going to star in that role to work us towards that Super Bowl.”
Barkley and Darnold will be linked forever. The Giants will get the first laugh when their first-round pick is tearing it up this season.
But did Big Blue lose sight of the bigger picture? Barkley wasn’t the missing piece to take the Giants to the promised land in the next couple years with Manning. Running backs rarely are. Just ask every Minnesotan S with a Peterson jersey. o, the Giants are left with an awesome talent with no clear succession plan at the position that matters most. Good luck with that. “Saquon’s an amazing player,” Darnold said. “He’s probably the most electric player that I’ve ever played against. It’s really cool to see him going to the Giants.”
The Jets couldn’t have said it any better.