Best bets to cap off season
Sunday of Week 17 is special: It’s not just the end of the regular season. It’s also the only day all year when we get 16 NFL games.
Sure, some of these contests mean nothing in the big picture, but to us sports bettors, each game is special.
Each one is an opportunity. Although I am not a “trends bettor,” I find that trends help me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games.
Using our Bet Labs database, I have uncovered some intriguing NFL trends for this week.
Washington +12 at Dallas
Under head coach Jason Garrett (since 2010), the Cowboys have been the league’s worst team against the spread as home favorites. The problem is Garrett.
Road dogs are a delicious 3620-1 ATS against Garrett’s boys, good for a 26% return on investment, and I doubt the team will get up for this game after disappointing in such ignominious fashion last week with the NFC East title at stake.
If you bet on the Cowboys this weekend, you must hate money.
Kansas City-L.A. Chargers Under 45
Whenever the Chiefs are home, I almost always automatically bet the under.
That might seem counterintuitive: If the team with one of the best offenses in the league is at home, shouldn’t we expect that team to score more points than usual? And wouldn’t that drive the game to the over?
With the Chiefs, that historically hasn’t been the case.
Under HC Andy Reid (since 2013), the Chiefs have actually scored 2.9 fewer points at home than on the road. That’s easily the most negative home/away offensive scoring differential in the league.
In fact, Chiefs games have an NFL-worst home/away total differential of -7.8 points. In Kansas City, NFL games rank No. 27 with a mere 43.3 points. On the road, Chiefs games blow out with 51.0 points, the No. 2 mark in the league.
Arrowhead Stadium is a tough place to score, for both the home and visiting teams.
In the Reid era, no home team has made under bettors more money than the Chiefs have with their 36-21-1 under record (including playoffs, 23% ROI).
Giants-Philadelphia Under 46
If the Eagles win this game, they will be the NFC East champions. Given what’s at stake, I expect them to slow the game down and play with more intention.
And that makes sense: Whenever divisional opponents face off in the final month of the season, we typically see lower-scoring games. The teams are familiar with each other, the weather is colder and they tend to be a little more conservative on offense.
In the Bet Labs database, the December divisional under is an A-graded 292-220-12 ATS (10.9% ROI).
And when these December divisional games are played outdoors, the under record improves to 231-170-11 ATS (12.1% ROI).
Seattle +3.5 vs. San Francisco
Underdogs against HC Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers are 10-4-1 ATS (36.6%), and at CenturyLink Field, the Seahawks have a true home-field advantage with the famed “12th Man.”
Under HC Pete Carroll (since 2010), the Seahawks have scored 7.2 points more than their opponents at home. With that differential, they are No. 3 in the league, trailing only the Tom Brady-led Patriots in Foxborough and Aaron Rodgers-led Packers at Lambeau over that time.
With Carroll, the Seahawks at home are 48-34-3 ATS (14.1% ROI).