Who’s lookin’ Super on
What to expect from Chiefs-Texans & Packers-Seahawks matchups
The two seeds in the NFL playoffs will be hosting their opponents on Sunday. Here’s what to expect in each game.
City Chiefs (-9.5) vs. Houston Texans, 3:05 p.m. ET (CBS) Kansas
The Chiefs are a 9.5 point favorite against the Texans for good reason. They’re a far superior team to the Texans in just about every way that doesn’t involve running the ball. Their passing game is explosive and efficient behind the pious right arm of Patrick Mahomes. The defense has been great this year under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and safety Tyrann Mathieu.
But it’s never safe to count out Deshaun Watson.
Watson is the main reason this Texans team has been able to overachieve this season, despite being a wildly inconsistent team. According to Pro Football Reference, the Texans’ expected record is 7.8 wins to 8.2 losses. Yet, they’re at this point with a chance to go to the AFC Championship game.
Watson will need to keep pace with Mahomes if the Texans want a chance to win this game. Houston’s defense has been one of the worst in the league, especially versus the pass. They ranked 24th in opposing yards per attempt (7.7). Kansas City’s offense ranks fifth in the league in yards per attempt (8.1).
The Texans face an uphill battle if they want to beat the Chiefs and continue their playoff run. Watson will have to put on his Superman cape to squeeze out a victory on the road.
Outside of Watson, the Texans can win this game if their run game takes over. Over the course of an entire season, running the ball doesn’t really dictate outcomes (unless their run game is a fully operational
Death Star like Baltimore’s). However, in a one game sample, running the ball can absolutely win a game.
Houston has the 11th ranked rushing offense according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Kansas City has the 29th ranked rushing defense according to that same measurement system. If Watson and Carlos Hyde can get into a rhythm on the ground and control the clock, the Texans might be able to grind their way to a win.
With all that said, Mahomes and company clearly have the upperhand here. They have so many weapons in the passing game against a porous defense that they should be able to bury Houston pretty quickly. Barring a miracle, the Chiefs should be heading to the AFC title game.
Green Bay Packers (-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks, 6:40 p.m. (FOX)
The only thing that’s guaranteed in this game is chaos.
Neither team is as good as their record indicates. The Seahawks and Packers have thrived on victories in close games, which tend to have random outcomes in the NFL. Pro Football Reference expected the Packers to have 9.7 wins based on their 2019 performance while the Seahawks were expected to finish with 8.2 wins.
Both teams have Hall of Fame caliber quarterbacks, even if Aaron Rodgers isn’t the overwhelming force of defensive destruction that he was in the past. Wilson is better than Rodgers right now, but Rodgers is playing on the better overall team.
The Packers have a good defense that can be inconsistent at times. Their ability to disrupt the line of scrimmage and create turnovers has made them a dangerous unit. Defensive lineman Za’Darius Smith can take over games from every position along the Packers’ front. He has a great matchup against the Seahawks’ offensive line, which has been one of the worst pass blocking units in the league this year.
Breaking through the Seahawks’ offensive line won’t be terribly difficult for the Packers. Bringing down Russell Wilson is a completely different beast. In any other season where Lamar Jackson does not exist, Wilson’s performance this year would be good enough to win the MVP. He carried Seattle’s offense on his back for the majority of the season and has developed a lethal connection with rookie wide receiver D.K. Metcalf. Seattle’s defense has been brutal this year, so Wilson will need to generate explosive plays. The Seahawks ranked 30th in sack percentage (4.5%) and 21st in opposing yards per attempt (7.4). Packers head coach Matt LaFleur should be able to exploit the Seahawks’ defense.
Seattle needs to make sure they don’t get too caught up in trying to bludgeon the Packers in the run game and keep the ball in Wilson’s hands. There are explosive plays to be had against Green Bay’s defense — let Wilson make them.
It’s hard to figure out who wins this game, but it should be an entertaining bout between two of the most erratic teams in the league.