Supe’s over is overvalued
The Super Bowl is the most popular sporting event of the year. The NFL championship game not only attracts sports fans, but parties, funny commercials, pools to bring something for everyone, and the TV ratings reflect that.
Not only will Super Bowl LIV be the highest-rated sporting event of the year, but it will also be the most heavily bet.
With its wide array of interesting props and the chance to wager on the eventual champion, casual bettors everywhere flock to get down on this game.
As a result, I've put together a handful of tips to help bettors find value in the game between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs.
If you like the 49ers …
Wait. I personally lean San Francisco in this matchup, but with the line in a dead zone at +1/+1.5, I'm in no rush to bet it.
Be patient to see if this number continues pushing toward +3, which is the most important number in football betting. Since 2003, nearly 15% of all NFL games have finished with a margin of three points, showing just how key this number is.
But be warned, there's a good chance that if the spread hits +3 it won't last long.
If you like the Chiefs …
Because short spreads that bounce around zero aren't all that important, I wouldn't worry about laying the points and having it move to a pick'em or even +1.
As a Chiefs bettor, you want to avoid waiting too long in the event this spread travels to -3. Again, if you want to employ patience, make sure to monitor this line and if it starts moving toward 3, grab it before it gets there.
If you like the over …
The 49ers-Chiefs total has attracted nothing but over action. The Action Network's public betting data is reporting 84% of all bets hitting the over at the time of writing.
In fact, as recently as Tuesday afternoon, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook's Jay Kornegay tweeted that his book had written just one Ticket on the under.
Unsurprisingly, oddsmakers across the market have had no choice but to move this total from an opener of 51.5 to 54 to account for such heavy, onesided money.
If you bet the over now, you're taking the worst of the number. Sure, it may go up even further, but at that point it's unlikely there is value in that wager anyway.
According to our Bet Labs data, which offers the ability to quickly and accurately analyze archived NFL betting data since the start of the 2003 season, a Super Bowl under has never received less than 34% of over/ under action.
So it's very unlikely that the under closes with just 16% of tickets. Therefore, it's reasonable to assume that more under money will hit the market from now through kickoff and pull this number back toward the opener.
At that point, the over becomes a playable line once again.
If you like the under …
Bet it now.
As I mentioned above, sportsbooks have seen nothing but over money and the current line reflects that. It is likely that the betting percentages even out and bring the total back down.
Since the AFC Championship Game sailed so far over, it's reasonable to assume 54 is an overreaction to a one-game, yet high-profile sample.
The Action Network's Sean Koerner projects the true line to be 50.5, not only suggesting value at under 54, but also that there could be a correction coming.