Eagles have Miles to go

Raheem Palmer: I’m sure you read the reports before last week’s matchup against Giants: The Philadelphia Eagles are as healthy as they’ve been all season.

Coming off a bye, the Eagles welcomed back running back Miles Sanders, wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey, right tackle Lane Jackson, left guard Isaac Seumalo and left tackle Jason Peters. As a result, they took professional money all week as sharp money pushed the line up from -3 to the closing line of -5.

The results weren’t very favorable, however: They lost 27-17 outright on the road with Carson Wentz completing just 21-of-37 passes for 208 yards. The offense was downright abysmal as they went just 0-for-9 on third down and 1-for-3 on fourth down. Wentz has been dreadful this season with a league-high 12 interceptions, ranking 31st in quarterback rating (71.1) and 28th in ESPN’s Total QBR (47.6).

The good news is that the Eagles now travel to Cleveland to play the Browns, who are actually a step down in class defensively despite having the NFL’s sack leader in Myles Garrett (9.5).

The Browns are just 26th in defensive success rate (49.1%), 19th in expected points added, 19th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA while playing the second-worst schedule of opposing offenses. Cleveland is also 20th in points allowed at 27.2 points per game despite playing in two consecutive games aided by heavy rain and winds that restricted offensive output. That appears to be the case this week as well, with 17 mph winds and a 50% chance of precipitation forecasted.

Zach Ertz will also make his return from injury against a Browns defense that’s giving up a 59% success rate to opposing tight ends (24th in the NFL), so look for him and Dallas Goedert to have big games.

Even with the favorable offensive matchup, defense is where the Eagles could win this matchup.

They’re 11th in defensive efficiency, allowing only a 46% success rate on runs (ninth) and a 45% success rate against the pass (10th). The Browns may have Garrett, but the Eagles’ front line of Brandon Graham, Malik Jackson and Fletcher Cox is just as dangerous — Jim Schwartz’s defense is third in sacks and sixth in pressure rate. This unit’s ability to generate pressure without blitzing will be huge against Baker Mayfield, who has struggled against pressure throughout his career.

The Browns want to run the ball with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, however this provides a favorable matchup and game script for an Eagles defense that’s 10th in rushing efficiency — the Eagles allowed 152 yards on 36 carries in last week’s loss, but 64 came on nine rushes from Daniel Jones, who thrived in the read option, which is not something we’ve seen from Mayfield this season.

Overall, this is a good buy-low spot for an Eagles team that came out flat off the bye against a divisional opponent. They’ve been competitive against better teams in the Steelers and Ravens, and if Wentz doesn’t turn the ball over, we could see a bounce back performance. They could even have a chance to win this game outright.

My projections make this game a pick’em and thus there’s some value on the Eagles at +3.5 and on the moneyline at +160. I would also recommend taking the Eagles in 6.5-point teasers along with the Packers — with the weather concerns in Cleveland, this total is likely to come down, making the 10 points more valuable.

Falcons +5 at Saints

Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday

Miles Sanders of the Eagles three of the past six games at New Orleans. Despite a 3-6 record, they enter this game still very much alive in the playoff picture thanks to their 3-1 record since replacing former head coach Dan Quinn with Raheem Morris.

They also had the benefit of a Week 10 bye to provide more time to recover for wide receiver Calvin Ridley. He suffered a foot injury in their 25-17 win over Carolina on Thursday Night Football before the bye. With more than two weeks to recover, it’s likely that Ridley will return to give Matt Ryan his full arsenal of weapons.

New Orleans will likely be without Drew Brees, turning to some combination of Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill. Either would represent a serious downgrade from the future Hall of Famer.

The Atlanta run defense has been surprisingly tough for opposing running backs. The Falcons have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game and second-fewest rushing yards to opposing RBs. There are very few areas on the offensive line that teams have been able to run effectively against Atlanta this season.

Surprisingly, the Falcons have also been able to limit Alvin Kamara.

Over their past six meetings, Kamara has fallen far below his normal averages, with 6.9 fewer fantasy points and 13 fewer total yards. He’s also failed to score a touchdown in any of those games.

Without Brees, I project this game closer to a 3-point spread. With Ridley healthy in an indoor environment, I expect Atlanta to find enough scoring to possibly pull off the upset. I’ll take the 5 points with the Falcons, on a line that opened at 4.5 and should come down once Brees is officially ruled out.

I would back this line down to 4.5 points.