BUCS at PACKERS
3:05 p.m., Packers by 3½, 51
HANK’S HONEYS: Let’s dismiss the weather factor right away (mid 2 0 s, potential snow). The cold isn’t going to affect Tom Brady after all of his bad weather games in Foxboro — and let’s not forget how Eli Manning pulled out two playoff wins at Lambeau. But Aaron Rodgers is playing as well as he ever has. Brady is not. And he’s going to need a big game from his statistically superior defense. Tampa’s No. 1 -ranked run D limited Aaron Jones to
1 5 yards on 1 0 carries in its 3 8 -1 0 romp over the Pack in Week 6 and were all over Rodgers, sacking him four times and picking him off twice including a pick-six. Can’t see him allowing that to happen again. First off, Jones has been on a roll. Secondly, even with Pro Bowl LT David Bakhtiari out, Rodgers has been getting great protection. Sure, Aaron Donald could barely play last week, but even without him that’s a great Rams front the Pack snuffed out. The question is will Todd Bowles start blitzing in front of man coverage? That is an invitation for disaster against Rodgers with Davante Adams singled up. Tampa Bay’s D comes off a big game against the Saints but there were mitigating factors, including a poor game by broken down Drew Brees. Then there is the one weakness of the Bucs defense, a 6 3 .1 6 % red zone conversion rate in the regular season compared to the Green Bay offense’s league-best 7 8 .4 6 .
Brady hasn’t lit up either Washington or New Orleans in the playoffs even though he’s been getting great protection. That could change this week against a Packer pass rush that has come on late in the year and was at its best last week against the Rams, led by edge rushers Za’Darius Smith and Rashan Gary. With all his weaponry, Brady has been running a big play offense but the Packers have excelled at taking away completions over 2 0 yards. The last QB to beat them deep was Jalen Hurts in Week 1 3 . Brady can have success on play action if the Bucs get their running game going. Cam Akers averaged 5 .0 ypc against the Pack last week and Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette are a formidable tandem.
The trends all point in Green Bay’s direction, including four blowouts by the home team in the five previous NFC title games.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Packers and the over.