BILLS at CHIEFS
6:40 p.m., Chiefs by 3, 53 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: If Patrick Mahomes doesn’t play, the Chiefs can’t win. But even if he is cleared out of concussion protocol, there are still some issues. Before he was dazed and left the game, Mahomes was limping around with turf toe. The combination will probably limit what the Chiefs want to do with him as a runner or even how many times he drops back. We would expect, then, to see Andy Reid protect him somewhat by leaning on his running game, especially if Clyde Edwards-Helaire returns this week. The Chiefs aren’t going to rush for 2 4 5 yards again, as they did in Week 6 with the Bills playing soft zone quarters coverage to limit Mahomes’ production. LB Matt Milano’s return has bolstered what had been a rubbery run defense that is built on quickness, not heft. Additionally, Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier didn’t dial up a single blitz. He’ll undoubtedly test Mahomes’ ability to move in the pocket this time. No offense is faster than the Chiefs but, again, defensive quickness is a Bills strength. The Bills are a bend but not break defense and they have been excelling in the red zone. That will be strength against strength. No one is better at scheming his receivers open down there than Reid. TE Travis Kelce will loom even larger than he usually does (Milano again).
KC has failed to cover in nine straight games and the Bills have been close to an ATS lock with nine out of
1 0 covers. That said, neither team has been playing up to its potential. That is particularly true of Josh Allen and the one-dimensional Buffalo offense. This is the biggest stage of Allen’s career and as much as his season earned him MVP consideration, he has yet to light things up in any postseason start. That said, this is the weakest defense he’ll be facing after the Colts and Ravens. We would expect Steve Spagnuolo to put together a heavy blitz package designed to keep Allen in the pocket. But he excels when he escapes to his right, either by finding receivers along the sideline or scrambling.
The game is a true tossup but the variables tilt the scale ever-so-slightly toward the Buffalo.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bills and the under.