Smart development for public land
Manhattan: I was disappointed to read an opinion piece that unfortunately deeply misrepresents our current plans for Governors Island (“For Governors Island, the wrong way forward,” Feb. 28). Our vision with the city for a Climate Solutions Center not only reflects uses long envisioned for the island but will expand educational and job opportunities around emerging climate-related fields, grow public programming and create solutions for one of the pressing challenges of our time.
This work will deliver on 20 years of planning for a mix of uses on the island and support year-round public access, long-term park maintenance, more frequent ferries, expanded visitor and cultural amenities and historic building investments — not line the pockets of unnamed private interests, as the piece oddly alleges.
It further incorrectly suggests that this plan would take away the island’s park space. In fact, that green space, which is protected in perpetuity by the island’s deed, will be further expanded by our plan, not constructed on as the article claims.
This moment presents an opportunity to think big about our city’s future. This plan will fulfill a long-held vision for the island, making it accessible to more New Yorkers than ever before and maintaining its cherished open space and historic resources. That’s a vision we know New Yorkers can get behind.
NBA ALL-STAR GAME SUNDAY, 6:30 P.M., TNT
Should they or shouldn’t they? That was the question many in the NBA wondered about the possibility of holding an All-Star Game this season.
With the pandemic still raging and a large portion of the population still unvaccinated, the league and its players weighed the risk of holding the annual game. Another factor that came into play was the late finish to last season, when the Finals ended in early October instead of late June due to the pandemic.
It wasn’t a slam-dunk decision for the NBA, but here we are. The NBA AllStar Game will be played this weekend in Atlanta, bringing together most of the league’s top players for what promises to be a highscoring exhibition.
Team captains LeBron James and Kevin Durant drafted their teams last night. Durant, the Nets star who has helped turn Brooklyn into a serious title contender, won’t play in the game due to an injury. LeBron will play despite taking the Lakers to an NBA title last season that was won almost four months later than it usually is.
Everything is scaled back this year and the AllStar Game is no different. The Slam Dunk Contest is smaller and the crowd will be too. But for us fans, it will be another step toward normalcy – especially if the players refuse to make even the most feeble attempt at playing defense.
Either way, it should be fun. Something we all need much more of.
Now that public-facing baseball data leaders like Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs have released initial 2021 standings projections, conversations are emerging about the upcoming MLB season, and books are starting to release win total over/ unders.
Since the majority of the public uses these freely available projections, and the books certainly take a peek at them, if you want to get the most value out of the total wins market, you have to create your projections and pounce early.
However, you should also compare your own projections to those other trusted sources and create a consensus or composite projection to see how your projections stack up.
It’s essential to look at more than one data point when creating projections for betting purposes; some forecasts will come in high, and others low on specific teams. But I have found that when the projection market lines up with or against an MLB win total, on aggregate, they tend to be right.
For example, during the 2018 and 2019 seasons, Davenport,
FanGraphs, and PECOTA (by Baseball Prospectus) projections went a combined 92-78-10 (54.1%) against listed win totals, but their composite projection finished 34-22-4 (60.7%) over the same period.
Furthermore, I have found additional value by combining my own projection with the industry projections, whether by taking an average of the four projections, or weighing mine (55%, and 15% for each of the other three) accordingly.
How do these projection stack up for 2021?
AMERICAN LEAGUE
sets
I provided both projections (25% average, and the 55%/15%/15%/15% weighted) in the sections below, in order to compare the relative differences between my 2021 MLB win total projections and the rest of the market.
Using a cut-off of three wins (plus or minus), the average projection suggests value on four win-total wagers in the American League: Chicago Under, Houston Over, Oakland Under, and Texas Over. The weighted projection concurs on Chicago, Oakland, and Texas, with Houston (+2.9) narrowly missing the cut.
The Texas recommendation is largely the result of one outlier (Davenport at 80 wins), and although all four projections (including my own) are above their listed total, I’m still having a hard time justifying an Over wager on one of the worst teams in baseball.
I am equally hesitant about betting Oakland’s Under. Publicly available projections have had a difficult time quantifying the A’s for three consecutive seasons, but an under wager starts to come into range at 88. If you wait until closer to opening day, this line should continue to rise as the Athletics solidify their roster in the bottom of the free-agent pool.
I have the most optimistic projection on the White Sox (88.9), but that still falls short of their total.
The one obvious composite play at the Westgate is the Orioles Under 66.5 wins. While I’m lowest in the projection market at 61.8, even the high end (65.6 from PECOTA) falls short total.
I’m heavily invested in the Astros divisional and world series futures, otherwise, I would consider an Over wager at 86.5 wins. of the
NATIONAL LEAGUE
listed
Using a cut-off of three wins (plus or minus), the average projection suggests value on two win total wagers in the National League: St. Louis Under and Pittsburgh Over. The weighted projection swaps the New York Mets Over in exchange for Pittsburgh as a potential play.
All four projections have the Mets and Padres exceeding their listed totals.
I’m interested in both plays at 90.5, and 94 respectively.
The Pirates are amongst the most undervalued teams on the board — and also expected to exceed their win total by each projection. The cumulative talent level in the NL
Central is so low (more on that in the next section) that it’s difficult to project the worst team in the division to lose 104 games.
I have the most optimistic projection on the Cardinals by at least 2.7 wins, and each of the other three projections would suggest hitting their Under. Notably, the Cardinals have beaten PECOTA projections more consistently than any other organization, and I think their typically strong team defense is partly the cause.
I feel similar about the Cardinals’ under as I do the A’s Under or Rangers’ Over: hesitant, but giving them adequate consideration.
PECOTA’s projection of 82 wins for the Braves is one of the more surprising figures, but they have been consistently low on this Atlanta team for three consecutive years.
As for the Marlins, the opening total at the Wynn (67.5) represented a strong Over wager based on my projection alone. But the composite projection now suggests hitting the Under at the Westgate. I would be inclined to play both sides and hunt for a fairly significant middle, but I think the market settles closer to the DraftKings total (70.5).
ACROSS
1 Loan abbr.
4 Long stories 9 Audit aces 13 Spike or Ang 14 Fishing net 15 Intone
16 Python or wrap 17 Griffith or Zola 18 Redhead’s dye 19 Less than
21 Sliver
23 Enigma
26 Singer — Braxton 27 Murmured softly Uniform wearers Basinger or Novak
Goes sky-high America’s Cup entrant
39 Horse, perhaps 41 Released
43 To be, to Henri 44 Bushed 46 Designated 48 Summer drink 49 Coveted awards 51 Skimpy skirts 53 DEA operative 55 Doctor’s concern Marshmallow toaster Abdul or Prentiss Parcel out Excedrin rival Flour holder Venture forth Kitchen strainer Morn’s counterpart Leg joint
Put a spell on Thing, in law 29 33
36 38 59 63
64 65 68 69 70 71
72 73 74
DOWN
1 Stamp holder 2 Many petaled blossom Utilizes the library Record players Sofa end
Moo goo — pan Leather punches Got some shuteye Fuzzy fabric Gasp
Ms. Bancroft of films Milky Way part Leisure wear And so on Take a bough Building part Long for Stargaze Minute amount Twine 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 15 20 22 24 25 28 30 31 32 33
34 35 37 40 42 45
47 50 52 54 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 66 67
Fencer’s weapon Green Hornet’s aide
Late spring flower Mr. Chagall Tractor-trailers Lanky one Gainsay
Cold, as an old house Smiled prettily Delhi address Health resort Collision Potato
Dull green Horses have them Hogshead Novelist — Paton Mme.’s daughter McClurg or Brickell Badger
“— got it!”