Don’t be upset: UCLA is historic underdog
The 2021 Final Four is officially set! In Saturday’s first game, Houston will take on Baylor for the right to play in Monday night’s national championship game, with UCLA vs. Gonzaga tipping off immediately after.
Houston, a 2-seed, meeting Baylor, a 1-seed, isn’t much of a surprise at all, and oddsmakers expect this to be a relatively close matchup — the Bears are 5-point favorites over the Cougars.
However, No. 11
UCLA against the NCAA Tournament’s top overall seed, Gonzaga, shouldn’t be all that close on paper, and the latest Final Four odds emphasize just that.
The Bulldogs are now -14 against the Bruins across the entire betting market (click here for live Final Four odds), which is tied with the 1996 national title game between Kentucky and Syracuse for the largest
March Madness spread in Final Four and national title game history.
In fact, just three other Final Four and/or national championship matchups have closed with double-digit spreads:
Year Game
1996 Kentucky -14 vs. Syracuse
2021 Gonzaga -14 vs. UCLA
1999 Duke vs. Michigan State
2016 North Carolina -10 vs. Syracuse
Since the 2005 NCAA Tournament, underdogs of 10 or more points have the slightest of edges in these matchups, posting a 120-117-5 (50.6%) against-the-spread (ATS) record.
Double-digit dogs have been a bit more profitable in this season’s tourney, going 8-6 (57.1%) through the Elite Eight matchups.
At the time of writing, 67% of bettors have grabbed UCLA and the points, while 91% of the money has fallen on Gonzaga. -11