It’s a low-win situation
With the news that the NFL is extending its season to 17 games in 2021, our analysts are here to break down the win totals they see immediate value on.
Jaguars Under 6.5 Wins (-110)
Chris Raybon: At first glance, over 6.5 wins looks within sight for Urban Meyer: The 10 teams that have finished 1-15 posted a .406 winning percentage the next season, which equates to 6.9 wins over a 17 game season, and the 11 college coaches who made the jump to the NFL since 2000 are 81-91-1 (.471) in their first pro season.
But context has to be taken into account. Those college coaches generally inherited teams that were bad, but not 2020 Jacksonville bad. Those 11 teams combined for a .295 winning percentage the season before hiring a coach from the college ranks, which means those coaches were able to deliver their franchises 17.6% more wins than the year prior. That’s an extra 3.0 wins over a 17-game season, which is nothing to sneeze at, but also nothing that would put the Jaguars anywhere close to going over the total, as their projected winning percentage using this method would be 23.9% (4.05 wins).
If a terrible team is able to make a six-win jump, a favorable last-place schedule is usually one of the biggest reasons why. And although the Jaguars get the benefit of nine home games, their 2021 slate of opponents is far more difficult than a normal last-place schedule due to drawing the NFC West, where all four teams are threats for double-digit wins, and the AFC East, where three of the four teams (Bills, Dolphins, Patriots) figure to be .500-or-better caliber.
Also doing the Jaguars no favors is that all but one of what figure to be their four most winnable games — Texans (twice), Jets and Bengals — will take place on the road.
Trevor Lawrence could be all he’s cracked up to be and more, and it still doesn’t necessarily guarantee the Jags will be a seven-plus win team. Look no farther than the last two No. 1 picks: Kyler Murray went 5-10-1 in 2019, and Joe Burrow went 2-71 before going down last season.
Broncos Over 7.5 (+100)
Brandon Anderson: I wrote about the Broncos as an intriguing Super Bowl long shot pick heading into free agency, and I’ll double down by betting on them to get to at least around .500.
Let’s start with what matters most: The quarterback. I would feel far better about this bet if the Broncos had done something — anything, really — in free agency at the position. But I don’t think we’re necessarily locked in here, pun perhaps intended. Drew Lock has shown very little to sew up the starting job, and there’s no one behind him on the roster to push him.
There will be another quarterback on this roster on opening day. Maybe it’s another high draft pick if one of the top quarterbacks slips in the draft. Maybe it’s a veteran brought in as a free agent, or even someone like Jimmy Garoppolo.
I just have to believe there will be some better quarterback on this team by the time the games start.
And if you gave this team even competent quarterback play, isn’t there a lot to like? This is Year 3 for Vic Fangio with this defense, and there’s a ton of talent there: Von Miller and Bradley Chubb are a fearsome pass rushing duo now that they’re healthy again, Justin Simmons is back after being a question to return, and they have the players and scheme to be a top five or 10 defense.
On offense, the young weapons are a ton of fun with Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant. The line and run game are solid, too.
Denver went 5-11 last season but lost five one-score games. Get a competent quarterback in here and this team should push .500 or even toward a wildcard spot.
Cardinals Over 8 Wins (-110)
Mike Randle: The Cardinals finished 8-8 last season, but are primed for an even better 2021 season.
Arizona has been a big player in free agency with the signing of All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt, veteran wide receiver A.J. Green, and a trade for former Raiders center Rodney Hudson. Per Pro Football Focus’ Improvement Index, Arizona ranks as the fourth-most improved team of this offseason (so far).
The Cardinals will need to address running back depth with the departure of Kenyan Drake, but an improved offensive line and the versatile Chase Edmonds make compensating that loss much easier.
Arizona went 4-5 in games decided by eight or fewer points, with two close losses to end the season at .500. With the schedule expanding to 17 games, I like the Cardinals over 8 wins at -110 juice.