Unexcused absence

In 2020, as college enrollments across the board and particularly in community colleges dropped precipitously as compared to 2019, observers theorized that students were driven away by the historic disruptions of COVID and would enroll in 2021 instead. The data is in, and has debunked this hypothesis: school enrollments are down even further, dropping 6.6% from 2019, more than 1.2 million students.

In fact, they have hit a wider education spectrum, as enrollments in four-year bachelor’s degree programs have dipped considerably. It’s not sufficient to point to the danger of the coronavirus or weariness over remote classes as the source of the enrollment dip. Instead, it seems that, as with many aspects of society, the pandemic served to clarify some realities and accelerate trends, namely the collapse of the cost-benefit analysis that pushed students to college in the first place.

Make no mistake: For many strivers, college, even when expensive, pays economic dividends in the form of higher salary and upward mobility over the course of a lifetime.

But the benefits are far from obvious for a growing share of the population. As tuition costs have continued to climb, now in exchange for pared-down educational services and facilities, more would-be students are failing to see the point. Especially in a tight labor market and amid broader financial uncertainty, they are making the natural choice to work and put away some money instead of entering into debt for a degree that will take years to provide a return.

For political leaders who tout the value of higher education, it’s time to reorient this calculus in favor of a degree, such as building out a functioning system to forgive debt for those who enter public service occupations and having public university systems offer more specialized instruction into emerging economic fields. Innovate or die.