Support our allies but ditch the saber-rattling

Manhattan: Vladimir Putin’s brinkmanship in Ukraine is a geopolitical power play reminiscent of Soviet times. He wants to turn back the clock and restore Soviet spheres of influence. According to Putin, the Soviet Union’s demise was “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.” Putin is not unhinged, nor does he want a war with the West. He is a rational actor who foments crisis to advance political goals. Threatening Ukraine, occupying Georgia and backing Belarus are calculated steps to strengthen Russia in its near abroad.

The Ukraine crisis is a challenge to the U.S., whose global leadership was hollowed out during the Trump administration and diminished by events in Afghanistan. Dictators are gauging Biden’s response. With Russia as a nuclear power, conflict escalation could have dire consequences. A negotiated settlement is far-fetched given Putin’s outrageous demands. Secretary of State Antony Blinken promised a written response to Putin’s demands. The answer should be: “Nyet.” For sure, there is inherent value in talking. Though negotiations are unlikely to meet Putin’s demands, dialogue may address Russia’s other security concerns, such as arms control. Additionally, involving opinion leaders could identify policy options and generate popular support for peace and progress.

Without reversing the statement pledging support for Georgia and Ukraine to join the alliance issued at the NATO Bucharest Summit in 2008, the U.S. can de-escalate tensions by publicly proclaiming that Ukraine will not be joining NATO anytime soon. The statement should also disavow the positioning of offensive weapons on Ukrainian territory. De-escalating tensions with Russia in Ukraine would represent a diplomatic victory that can change Putin’s behavior in other places where Russia is a bad actor.