WITH A LITTLE LUCK
If Ping Pong balls bounce their way, Knicks’ fortunes could turn around in top-heavy draft
It’s always dangerous to get conclusive about a draft class before the picks are called, let alone before the players step on the court, but the preliminary consensus among scouts and experts is that 2022 is top heavy.
Specifically, there are four players that sit as the cream.
So for the Knicks, who enter the draft lottery at No. 11, the drawing of Ping Pong balls Tuesday night in Chicago is consequential. Potentially franchise altering.
There is a decent enough chance for them to crack the top4 (9.4%) to pay attention, and the reaction of the always demonstrative William Wesley, who is sitting for the Knicks on the dais, will be worth a view regardless of the outcome.
And if the Knicks’ lottery luck changes and the franchise moves up in the lottery for the first time since 1985, here’s a breakdown of the four prospective rewards (we’re ignoring that the team could also use such a lucrative pick to trade for a star. Ahem, Donovan Mitchell):
JABARI SMITH JR.
AGE: 19
SCHOOL: Auburn HEIGHT: 6-10 AVERAGES LAST SEASON: 17.1 points, 6.9 rebounds, 43.6% three-point shooting
SCOUTING REPORT: There is no consensus top pick but Smith Jr. is a good place to start. Smith Jr., the son of an NBA player, is polished for a teenager and owns a sweet outside shot at 6-10. A prototypical stretch power forward or center for today’s NBA. The concerns include his lack of strength and ability to create with the ball, leading to worries he’d be nothing more than a spot-up big man in a halfcourt set. He also left a bad final impression in college when Auburn was upset in the second round of the NCAA tournament, with Smith Jr. shooting an abysmal 3-for-16 in 35 minutes against Miami.
NBA COMPARISONS: Chris Bosh, Jaren Jackson Jr., Rashard Lewis
PAOLO BANCHERO
AGE: 19
SCHOOL: Duke HEIGHT: 6-10 AVERAGES LAST SEASON: 17.1 points, 7.7 rebounds, 32.4 3-point %
SCOUTING REPORT: More versatile offensively than Smith Jr., meaning he can score from three levels and set up his teammates.
The Seattle native (he also has Italian citizenship) can handle the rock and should easily handle the uptick in physicality and strength at the NBA level. Banchero’s stock rose during Duke’s run to the NCAA final, but his outside shot is too streaky to characterize as a positive and his defense, specifically his effort on that end of the floor, remains the biggest concern.
NBA COMPARISONS: Julius Randle, Juwan Howard, Tobias Harris
CHET HOLMGREN
AGE: 20 SCHOOL: Gonzaga HEIGHT: 7-0 AVERAGES LAST SEASON: 14.2 points, 9.6 rebounds, 3.6 blocks, 41.2 3-point%
SCOUTING REPORT: A rim protector and a skilled offensive player with an outside shot that is blossoming to potentially elite. Coordinated for his size but the super skinny frame is a scary thought in the NBA. Holmgren is not even 200 pounds at his height. He’s performed at all levels exquisitely thus far, earning National High School Player of the Year in 2021, Second Team All-American at Gonzaga and MVP of the FIBA U-19 World Cup with Team USA. But his frame could get bullied in the NBA and he may not be quick enough to make up for it.
NBA COMPARISONS: Kristaps Porzingis, Brook Lopez, Evan Mobley
JADEN IVEY
AGE: 20
SCHOOL: Purdue HEIGHT: 6-4 AVERAGES LAST SEASON: 17.2 points, 3 assists, 37% 3-point shooting
SCOUTING REPORT: The only guard on this list is an elite athlete with an improved outside shot that pushed him up the draft boards. It’s hard to determine if Ivey will be a lead guard in the NBA, or if he’s better suited off the ball. Either way, Ivey is a competitor and will find a role on the perimeter. He led the Boilermakers to their first ever No. 1 ranking last season, but struggled with just nine points when they were shocked by St. Peter’s Prep in the NCAA tournament. Has the tools and will to be a strong defender but needs to clean up the mistakes.
NBA COMPARISONS: Ja Morant, Dejounte Murray, Josh Richardson