Voters’ states of mind

WHAT

will perhaps go down as the most important economic number before Election Day was released on Friday to little fan fare.

The number — announced by the US Labor Department — shows that the unemployment rate dropped in 41 of our 50 states in September, a micro-cosm of the headlinegrabbing number two weeks ago that showed the overall rate dipped to an Obama administration low of 7.8 percent.

But much like the Electoral College determining the winner, the unemployment rate in each individual state is what will be on the minds of voters as they cast their votes — not the overall 7.8 percent number. And it is in those individual state jobless numbers that things get really interesting.

Twentyeight states have an unemployment rate that falls below the national average, including Ohio (7 percent), Virginia (5.9 percent), New Hampshire(5.7 percent), and I ow a (5.2 percent).

And in each of these traditionally conservative states, Team Obama is competitive and fighting to the finish. The fact that the average unemployment rate in these four battlegrounds is below 6 percent is a big reason why.

On the flip side, six other swing states are struggling with jobless numbers considerably above the national average. At 11.8 percent, Nevada tops the charts, followed by North Carolina at 9.6 percent, Michigan at 9.3 percent, Florida at 8.7 percent, Pennsylvania at 8.2 percent and Colorado at an even 8. In the past few weeks, the RomneyRyan ticket has been gaining ground in all five states.

So what does this mean for the election? The possibility of a real squeaker. If President Obama wins all the swing states where the unemployment rate is below the national average of 7.8 percent, he comes in with 268 electoral votes, two shy of victory. If MittRom

ney wins all the swing states where unemployment is above that benchmark, hewinswith270.

That said, it’s important to note that while the polls are tightening in jobschallenged Pennsylvania, the Romney beancounters so far have not deployed advertising dollars to the Keystone State.