Moreland than meets the eye
SOMETIMES, a poll is just a snapshot that has no lasting meaning. Other times, it’s the whole ball game, an accurate gauge of what is and what will be. Then there are polls like the latest one on the governor’s race. It has enough good news to encourage both Andrew Cuomo and Republican challenger Rob Astorino, and enough bad news to scare the bejesus out of both.
Most important, the results should inspire New Yorkers to pay attention. This is a contest about something important — the corruption that makes Albany a national joke. Voters have a historic chance for reform, if they force both candidates to address the sleaze.
The survey, by The Wall Street Journal, NBC and Marist College, shows Cuomo still comfortably in front among registered voters, 5423 percent. A month ago, the tally was 5924.
But the topline numbers don’t tell the whole story. Some 62 percent of those surveyed said Cuomo and his office “should not have had input” in the workings of the Moreland Commission, the anticorruption panel he started and prematurely ended.
And 52 percent said yes when asked if Cuomo “did something unethical, but not illegal.”
The modest drop in his margin is almost certainly owing to the negative coverage of Cuomo’s disputed role and tortured explanations, and of a new federal probe into whether the governor improperly intervened to protect himself.
But the failure of Astorino to make headway muddies the picture, as reflected in the Journal’s own headline: “Astorino Seems Stuck.”
Maybe he is, but neither candidate can be certain. Most voters aren’t tuned in yet and we can’t predict what will happen in November until we see what happens between now and then.
Everything I know about politics and journalism tells me the Moreland story has legs. Lots of long, juicy legs. Indeed, so many legs that they could decide the outcome.
Consider three key facts. First, crusading Manhattan US Attorney Preet Bharara is fu rious at what he regards as Cuomo’s casual tolerance for corruption. Bharara’s office is sending public signals that the governor might even have a legal problem, a move the prosecutor wouldn’t make without a green light from the Justice Department, which holds veto power over highprofile criminal cases. By definition, a case involving a governor of New York, especially one from the same party as the president, qualifies as highprofile, yet that doesn’t seem to be giving Cuomo any protection.
Second, Bharara’s probe is whetting the appetite for scandal at the state’s farflung newspapers. Every editor and blogger is looking for a local scoop on the Moreland panel, which included members from around the Empire State. A bombshell could mean bragging rights, maybe a Pulitzer. The Albany Times Union, for instance, reported Monday that the panel was building cases against 15 legislators when Cuomo pulled the plug. Detailed stories on those cases could have a multiplier effect on voters.
Third, the public already assumes the worst about Albany. A Siena poll last month found that twothirds of voters believe legislators are in the job only to benefit themselves and their friends, and voters aare not surprised when oone gets busted. Cuomo positioned himself in 2010 as the man who would sweep the bums out, but the continuing string of indictments, combined with the Moreland debacle, is undermining that claim. The ultimate danger for him is that Bharara finds compelling evidence that taints Cuomo directly.
As for Astorino, he may not get another opening as promising as this one, but he doesn’t have the cash to mount a serious TV blitz to capitalize. Polls show that half of voters don’t know much about him, meaning he has work to do just to be seen as a credible alternative.
The possible scenarios, then, span the spectrum. Moreland could erupt into a huge bonfire that upends the race, or it could fizzle out as Cuomo cruises to a landslide reelection.
The point is, we don’t know yet. That’s why it’s a horse race worth watching.