HOU HAS TEX APPEAL
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HE Giants gloomanddoomers ended up on the right side of the wager last week, but not for the reasons they had envisioned. Eli Manning did begin to find a rhythm in Ben McAdoo’s new West Coast offense, and the offensive line had at least a credible showing against a tough Cardinals front seven. The Giants even had the lead in the fourth quarter before the Ted Ginn Jr. jailbreak punt return and two turnovers spoiled the outcome.
So as you read this next selection, know it’s not coming from someone who has written off the Giants as noshots. But even given the oldschool handicapping metric of an 02 at home vs. a 20 —the expectation of the inevitable turnaround for both teams — this looks to be an exceedingly bad matchup for the Giants. They couldn’t get enough stops against Drew Stanton, and he hadn’t started a game in about four years. Now in comes the underrated Ryan Fitzpatrick, with a 118.4 quarterback rating and weapons everywhere. And he goes up against a defense that just lost veteran defensive back Walter Thurmond III and may be without essential linebacker Jon Beason. Just too many problems on offense, defense and special teams to take the Giants here.
The pick: Texans 2 ¹/₂
Chargers (+2) over BILLS: The reaction
to the Chargers throttling the Seahawks comes off as more antiSeattle than proSan Diego. But the Bolts could be one of the breakout teams this season. Ryan Mathews is out but they plug in Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown. Not sold on the Bills as an everyweek force just yet.
Cowboys (1) over RAMS: Both are coming off road wins, but the Cowboys’ 2610 trouncing of the Titans trumps the Rams’
1917 squeaker over the Bucs. The Tony RomoDez Bryant connection got reestablished with 10 hookups. Cowboys look to be a good value at this small number.
Redskins (+6¹/₂) over EAGLES: The Redskins may be a better offense with Kirk Cousins at the controls instead of Robert Griffin III. And their defense is No. 1 through two games, coming off a 10sack frenzy against the Jaguars. The Birds can blow anyone out if they play a full 60, but they haven’t done that yet. And they’re coming off a tough Monday night win, a handicapping redflag.
SAINTS (10) over Vikings: The Saints are 02 and now play their first home game against the team that has become the epicenter of the NFL’s national crisis. The Steele Trap has the stat that the Saints have won their last 16 at home with Sean Payton as coach (on either side of his Bountygate ban), and are 1501 against the spread.
Titans (+7) over BENGALS: Maybe it’s a suicide mission to go against the Bengals at home, where they have won 10 in a row in the regular season. But the number’s pretty high and WR A.J. Green and LB Vontaze Burfict — Cincy’s best players on offense and defense, respectively — likely won’t play.
Ravens (1 ¹/₂) over BROWNS: Cleveland has had a lot of spark early on, but that can’t hide “450” on the stat sheet for yards per game allowed. Grabbing the betterallaroundquality Ravens at this bargain price, off extra rest following last Thursday’s rout of the Steelers.
LIONS (2 ¹/₂) over Packers: The takeaway here from last week wasn’t how the Packers came back to beat the Jets, but how the Jets stunningly dominated them on both sides of the ball. Feeling here is the Packers are in for more of that this week against a Lions team that will be very hard to handle at home off a loss.
Colts (7) over JAGUARS: Whether it’s Chad Henne or Blake Bortles, it’s still the Jaguars’ offensive line that gave up 10 sacks to the Redskins last week. The 02 record and Monday Night ref screw job should light a fire under the Colts, who destroyed the Jaguars 373 and 3010 last season.
Raiders (+14) over PATRIOTS: Last week’s results really drove this line through the roof. Just don’t think the Raiders are this bad or that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick play to beat this big number anymore. Derek Carr only will get better, too.
49ers (3) over CARDINALS: Niners will be tough after a loss, and Cards may not have enough firepower with Jonathan Dwyer suspended, Andre Ellington on a bad foot and Carson Palmer iffy to return due to a shoulder injury. Drew Stanton won’t cut it, here.
SEAHAWKS (5) over Broncos: Peyton Manning couldn’t function vs. the Seattle de
fense on a neutral field in the Super Bowl. Don’t like his chances much better in front of the deliriously loud 12th Man. Both teams have changed some, but don’t see how Denver has changed the overall dynamic so much, so soon.
Chiefs (+4) over DOLPHINS: Dwyane Bowe’s return from a onegame suspension meant a lot for Kansas City, which covered in Denver while the Dolphins fell flat in Buffalo. This has the feel of a game won at the gun by a field goal, either way, so jumping on the points.
PANTHERS (3 ¹/₂) over Steelers: Pittsburgh has the extra rest and it’s hard to think they would get embarrassed in backtoback in prime timers. But this Panthers team is going to be a real handful at home this season. Cam Newton has more weapons and the D creates a ton of turnovers.
MONDAY NIGHT
JETS (2 ¹/₂) over Bears: The Jets can take a lot of good from the way they played in the first 25 minutes at Lambeau. Jay Cutler had to take notice of all the hard hits they laid on Aaron Rodgers. It’ll be hard for the Bears to get up so high again after knocking off the 49ers in prime time last week. BEST BETS: Lions, Chargers, Seahawks. LAST WEEK: 79 overall, 12 Best Bets. LOCK OF THE WEEK: Lions (Locks 11). THURSDAY NIGHT: Bucs (L).