HEAVY HITTERS
WET TRACK FAVORS BOMBERS LIKE DUSTIN
AUGUSTA, Ga. — If you’re trying to pick who the Masters champion will be this week, look no further than length.
Augusta National has always been a golf course that favors the longest hitters— see Jack Nicklaus ( six Green Jackets), TigerWoods ( four) and Phil Mickelson ( three) as examples.
But with rain already having soaked the storied grounds and more in the forecast for the week, this Masters could be a bomber’s paradise.
That could mean another good week for Bubba Watson, the defending champion and winner of two of the last three. Or Dustin Johnson, one of the longest hitters in the game. Or Jimmy Walker, who is sneaky long. Or J. B. Holmes, who won last week in Houston and crushes it.
“It’s playing very long and it’s playing soft,’’ Mickelson said. “So I think that distance is going to be a huge element this week. The reason I think this week, especially, is that the greens are very soft and receptive, and so the longer hitters are going to be able to reach the par 5s and get the ball stopped on the greens.
“I think guys like Dustin and J. B. Holmes and Bubba Watson and Rory McIlroy, the usual suspects who really hit the ball long and far, have a distinct advantage coming into these greens. I think distance is going to be a factor and I’m going to be trying to swing as hard as I can. I won’t be able to keep up with them, but hopethe same zip code and have short irons into greens so I can have opportunities at lots of birdies.’’
A look at recent Masters champions supports Mickelson’s premise. Watson won last year. Adam Scott, who has good length, won in 2013; Watson in 2012; Charl Schwartzel, with good length, won in 2011. Mickelson, a long hitter, won in 2010, 2006 and 2004. Angel Cabrera, a big hitter, won in 2009.
The only shorter hitters who have won the Masters in recent years have been Zach Johnson in 2007 and Mike Weir in 2003.
Weir and Johnson, who both won in bad- weather years, had the two highest aggregate totals during the last 15 years while winning their Masters’ titles. Johnson laid up on every par- 5 and won it with a 1- over- par score over 72 holes, the highest in tournament history.
“If you can hit it far, it sure makes a big difference,’’ Walker said. “Look at what Bubba does on 13 … he has sand wedge in there. I can cut the corner, but I’m not hitting sand wedge in [ to the green]. So yeah, it makes a big difference.’’
Those who feast on the par- 5s are the ones who win Green Jackets. All four of them are reachable in two shots for the long hitters. No. 2, a 575- yard par- 5, is often reached in two and yields eagles with some regularity. No. 8 is 570 yards and reachable. No. 13 is 510 yards and the most reachable of all. And No. 15 is 530 yards and reachable despite the water The inability to break down the par- 5s, in fact, has been what has held McIlroy back from winning his first Masters and it’s been something he’s worked hard on this week in an effort to complete a career Grand Slam with a win.
“I’m making too many pars on them,’’ McIlroy said. “I think I made six 6s last year, four on par- 5s and two on par- 4s. Sometimes on par- 5s with my length, I can be a little overaggressive. I’m standing there, especially thinking back even to the last day last year, I had a 9- iron in my hand on 13, and I think I had a 9- iron in my hand on 15, and I walked away with two 6s. You turn those into two 4s and all of a sudden I finish third in the tournament.
“If you look at the previous winners here, they’ve all played the par- 5s well,’’ McIlroy went on. “Bubba last year played them at 8- under par. I played them at even par and he beat me by eight shots. If I can just play the par- 5s a little better, hopefully that will help me do better and obviously have a chance to win.
“Instead of being maybe ultra- aggressive and you think you’re in a position to make 3, give yourself a decent chance at 3 but make sure that you get your 4. That’s been something I’ve been thinking about, getting the eagle a little bit too much, and trying to get two shots up on the field instead of settling for one and still realizing that’s still a good result.’’