ZERO TOLERANCE
MLB needs to address issue of declining offense
S ure, it is a cycle. But what if the cycle lasts a decade — or longer? What have you seen in the last few years or this first week to suggest that offense is close to rebounding in the majors?
We used to say the pitchers are ahead of the hitters early in the season. But the truth is they are ahead — way ahead — of the hitters in this generation. The result is a game of greater inaction — more strikeouts, fewer baserunners, fewer runs and fewer overall chances to see the athleticism of the players.
New commissioner rob Manfred has insisted he will become pro- active if t his season is unplugged like last year and the year before. Good for him not to be intractable.
Look, it would be best if all could be left alone, if this really were self-correcting in an acceptable period. But every trend and change of recent vintage has favored one side in the pitcher-hitter confrontation. And it ain’t the hitter. Better drug testing. The shifts. Greater velocity. The use of hot-cold zones to better zero in on hitters’ weaknesses. The greater use of matchup relief.
Without intervention — and significant intervention — there is no reason to believe balance will return. There were shutouts in 17 of the first 61 games this season (27.9 percent), and the near no-hitter has become a nightly staple of the game. Through Friday, teams were averaging 3.7 runs per game and hitting . 233 with a .666 OPS. Yes, it is cold in many places and, yes, it is early. But that is dreadful and boring. The sport is not well served when 25 fan bases think their offense stinks.
The most popular league in this country, the NFL, has been unafraid to change rules when it has encountered imbalance on the field, especially when offense was down. Baseball cannot keep playing the tradition card, afraid to upset older fans in particular. Not when it so badly needs to attract a new generation. And not when history shows there always initial is screaming over extra wild cards or instant replay or three divisions or any seminal change. Then all of that normalizes and the screaming fades.
For those old enough to remember the implementation of the DH to the American League in 1973, that was met in many realms as an act against humanity. But in 1971-72 the average runs per game for teams fell to 3.89 then 3.69, and the only lower mark in the Live Ball ERA (post-1919) was the pitching-sainted season of 1968 (3.42) and the mound was shortened in height and slope in response. run-scoring rose in 1973, and the DH has become generally accepted. You know what the team average run-scoring trend line is now? 4.32 (2012), 4.17 (2013), 4.07 (2014), 3.57 (2015).
Again, we can wait for some giant self-correct button to be pushed, but you should know while you hear lots about a super prospect such as Kris Bryant, scouts lament the lack of bats they see on a daily basis in the minors. In other words, without rule changes you are going to keep seeing 96-mph fire breathers parade out of bullpens to turn what should be the most scintillating part of a game — the final three innings — into a strikeout-a-thon.
The three proposals that have received the most buzz to try to reinflate offense are to add the designated hitter to the National League, ban shifts (two infielders must stay on both sides of the second base bag) and mandate that each reliever — without an injury — must face a minimum of three hitters, thus, eliminating the single plate appearance — say, lefty-vs.-lefty matchup that chokes offense and slows pace as reliever after reliever enters.
There has been talk of tightening the strike zone, particularly raising what has become a zone that has crept beneath the knees, an area from which it is hard for hitters to do damage. Something must be done to address the inaction. Strikeouts per game have risen every year since 2005 and walks per game per team were down to 2.88 last year — the lowest since 1968 (2.82). Strikeouts were up again this year to nearly eight a game (7.94) while walks were similar to last year (2.93).
If you don’t think forcing the pitcher to come into a better part of the plate can make a difference, consider that after a 1-1 count goes to 2-1, hitters had a .777 OPS last year compared with .448 when 1-1 became 1-2. In 2014, that was roughly the difference between Hunter Pence hitting or Clayton Kershaw.
One assistant general manager offered this radical proposal: Make three balls a walk as a way to get more men on base, force pitchers to work more over the plate and quicken atbats.
The deflated offense “is not cyclical, nor is it an aberration,” he said. “There is a strong downward trend, and something needs to be done.”
It took a confluence of events to suffocate offense, so it is going to take more than one alteration to reinvigorate scoring. If the NFL is open to making an extra point tougher, then MLB should be open to making life more difficult for seventh-inning relievers. Here are my two shake-it up suggestions:
1 First, remember that a roster is a contrivance. Why is it 25 rather than 23 or 27? It can be any number. The 40-man roster can be a 43-man roster. The sizes should be about what is best for the game, not something that ends in a five or zero so we can count them on our fingers more easily.
Besides history, why are the four starting pitchers not slated to pitch that day on the active roster? In the NHL teams have a pool to pick from and choose who is active each game. MLB should do the same by making every member of a 40-man roster eligible for any game. Five hours before first pitch a team must declare its 25 active players, and no more than eight can be pitchers. A team should be able to survive a game with a starter and seven relievers ( and the previous four starters deactivated to watch).
This would leave 17 position players available to a manager. I could imagine each team trying to carry a Terrence Gore-type speedster that could be unleashed to try to steal a base (build drama, tension, strategy, etc.) at a key moment. Clubs more easily could counter lefty-righty relief strategies by having specialists who hit well against the opposite side.
Worried that this would mess with development of prospects? Fine. Go to a 45-man roster so you could have more veteran minor leaguers who might have singular skills (speed, hitting vs. lefties etc.) doing these jobs. Worried that it would cost too much because extra players would be getting service time, minimum wage, etc.? Well, how about some good will between the commissioner’s office and Players Association in which you come up with a way to give half service time and half minimum wage to players who otherwise would be getting zero of each in the minors?
One other fringe benefit of this system: At a time when injury prevention is also a front-burner issue, you get the opportunity to spread playing time around better, or get more players off the field in blowouts, or not play shorthanded when a player has an injury that needs five days of rest but not a full 15-day disabled-list stint.
2 My friend, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated, has proposed the idea of the bonus at-bat in which a club could use its best hitter once at any point of the game without removing anyone else. For example, if it were bases loaded and one out in the seventh, Detroit trailing by three runs and Jose Iglesias due up, Tigers manager Brad Ausmus instead could send Miguel Cabrera to the plate.
My idea is an off-shoot of that one. Think how NBA coaches, for example, play offense-defense late, shuffling in scorers when they have the ball and defenders when the opposition does.
My concept would be to allow one free pinch-hit and pinch-run a game without having to remove the player for whom you hit or run. For example, Didi Gregorius comes up in a critical spot facing a lefty. Yankees manager Joe Girardi can hit a righty for him without losing Gregorius’ defense. Or if Mark Teixeira is the tying run on second in the sixth inning, Girardi could insert, say, Chris Young to run without losing Teixeira from hitting and fielding the rest of the game.
It raises the potential for more scoring while also making strategy more fascinating. Do you use the single pinch hitter with the bases loaded in the second inning for a weak hitter or do you hold it in your pocket for the late game? Anything that gets fans discussing/arguing what they would do and when is good for the sport.
And, really, the good of the sport is what we must think about here. The lack of baserunners and scoring is making games harder to watch when there have never been more options for free time. The sport can act like this is not occurring or be open to all ideas from the subtle to the radical.