Why Arabs Distrust O

LAST week, President Obama finally set a date— May 13— for Washington’s Arab allies to gather at an “urgent” summit. Obama made the invitation to calm Arab fears his administration had decided to let Iran acquire full nuclear capability and pursue hegemonic plans in the Mideast. Those fears were grounded in Obama’s readiness to bend over backward to woo the mullahs.

European allies involved in the talks have told Arab officials that in the final phase of negotiations Iran and the United States were often on the same side against unexpected hardness from the French and hesitation from the British.

Analysts believe Obama’s strategy is to use the talks as a means of influencing Iran’s domestic politics to help the more “moderate” faction led by former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, nowin control of the presidency, capture other organs of power in Tehran.

Arabs believe that Obama’s strategy is built on the same illusion that led Presidents Jimmy Carter, George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton into helping the mullahs out of tight corners in the hope of securing a “grand bargain.”

“The Rafsanjani crowd has been trying to sell us the same bill of goods for decades,” says a senior Arab official. “The idea was that if we helped them tame radical Khomeinists, they would lead Iran to normality. We bought the fable and paid the price. Obama is repeating our mistake on a grander scale that also includes the threat of a nucleararmed rogue state.”

The Arabs worry that Obama wants to use Camp David to fudge his decision to appease the mullahs by claiming he has Arabs on side.

“He is going to give a Churchillian speech,” says an Arab official. “But we know that you can’t be Chamberlain one day and Churchill the next.”

That few are likely to fall for Obama’s trick is clear in a number of ways. First, the antiISIS “coalition,” supposedly led by the United States, has all but fallen apart. In the past two weeks, none of the Arab allies have carried out any operations against Islamist terrorists.

Baghdad has made all but clear it does not want “outsiders,” obviously with the exception of Iran, to have a military presence in Iraq.

The Iraqi leaders have no desire to see the mullahs dominate their nation. However, convinced that the United States is determined to side with Iran in the region, they prefer to hedge their bets.

Distrust of Obama’s motives has persuaded the Sultan of Oman to decline the invitation. In a phone call with Obama last week, the Sultan expressed support for a “negotiated end” to the nuclear dispute but made it clear hewould not wish to travel to America to endorse the administration’s strategy.

“Obama wants to pretend that his sellout to Iran enjoys international support both in Europe and the Arab world,” says an Arab analyst. “Obama claims that the only naysayer is [ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu.”

The Sultan may not be the sole absentee. There are signs Saudi Arabia’s king may also stay away, sending his younger brother, Crown Prince Miqrin, instead. Another possible absentee could be the president of the United Arab Emirates, whose country has a quarrel with Iran over three strategic islands in the Strait of Hormuz.

The invited states refuse to say who will attend at this stage, encouraging speculations that major leaders may stay away.

“We are not worried about what Obama is doing with Iranians,” says Saudi columnist Abdul-Rahman al-Rashed. “We are angry.” Obama’s guest list may end up including only the emir of Kuwait, the king of Bahrain, and the emir of Qatar.

Over the past weeks, Gulf Cooperation Council nations have tried, without success, to obtain more information about what Obama hopes to achieve with Iran and what concessions have already been made.

The summit is to come three weeks after the start of “final” talks with Iran, which means Obama doesn’t want to consult the Arabs before. If by May 13 the talks have ended, the Arabs will read the news in the papers. In either case, the “summit” won’t influence the outcome of the talks.

The Arabs resent that even Malta and Slovakia are informed of the nuke talks because of their membership of the European Union, while Iran’s Arab neighbors “have to read about it in the newspapers.”

“The Iranian nuclear station at Helliyeh is 80 miles from Kuwait City,” says a Kuwaiti official. “However, we are shut out of the talks, while 28 members of the EU are kept posted.”

In the vain hope of turning Iran into a friend, Obama may end up transforming some of America’s oldest allies into adversaries.