BERNIE SANDERS’ MISSING REVOLUTION
SPARKING a political revolution is a core premise of Bernie Sanders’ insurgent campaign, but so far there are few signs of it happening. Compared to the last contested Democratic primary in 2008, party voter participation is down dramatically so far. On Saturday, turnout fell by onethird — from about 118,000 to about 80,000 — in the Nevada caucuses, according to Democratic Party estimates.
While Sanders essentially tied with Hillary Clinton in Iowa and won New Hampshire by double digits, Democratic turnout dropped 28 percent in the first contest and 13 percent in the second as compared to 2008 levels, when Barack Obama was in the race.
“I’m not sure there’s a formal definition of a revolution, but part of that would include increased participation,” said politicalscience professor and Bloomberg Politics polling analyst Ken Goldstein.
The drop in turnout is stinging for Sanders because it undermines a core pitch of his campaign. In stump speeches and debates, he regularly calls for a “political revolution” that gathers enough progressives to force Republicans in control of Congress to support bold goals like universal health care, a higher minimum wage and free college tuition.
Campaigning in New Hampshire in late January, Sanders said voter participation was critical when asked how he’d get Republicans to support his agenda:
“This is what I mean by a political revolution. If the American people become activated, if the American people are prepared to stand up and say, ‘Yes, we’re gonna raise the minimum wage. Yes we’re gonna have paid family and medical leave. Yes, we’re gonna make public colleges and universities tuitionfree, etc., etc.’ And if people become activated you know what? The Republicans will listen. And you know why the Republicans will listen? Because if they don’t they’re gonna join the ranks of the unemployed.”
By contrast, he said, if voter turnout is low, as it was in the 2014 midterm elections, the GOP won’t be inclined to support those ideas.
The data show progressives to be less politically engaged during the 2016 Sanders campaign than they were during Obama’s 2008 campaign.
The early data give some validation to Clinton’s more technocratic, but less inspirational message. She proposes to be an incrementalist, rather than a revolutionary. Instead of pushing goals like singlepayer health care and breaking up the largest banks, she relies on a mix of more modest legislative proposals and executive actions to lower prescriptiondrug costs and toughen regulations on financial institutions.
Obama’s rise to power exemplifies the obstacles to revamping politics in a deeply divided country. Lavished with massive crowds and a onceinageneration insurgency that powered him to a White House victory in 2008, Obama’s progressive ambitions were stymied at every step of the way by implacable Republicans in Congress.
Republicans, meanwhile, have seen record turnout in their early contests of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, a trend that — if it holds — could indicate an empowered opposition facing a potential Sanders White House, especially if Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives, as they are widely expected to do.
Unless Sanders proves he can outperform Obama when it comes to mobilizing voters in support of progressive goals, Sanders will have a hard time ar guing he can succeed where the president failed.
For Sanders, there’s still time to prove his point. After New Hampshire, his campaign spokesman Michael Briggs rejected as applestooranges the turnout comparison to 2008, arguing that there were more candidates in that Democratic field early on. He posited that the turnout dynamic will change in later contests.
Sanders has his work cut out for him.
“Even though Sanders has certainly gotten large enthusiastic crowds,” Goldstein said, “he’s not Obama in 2008, and, quite frankly, he’s not [Donald] Trump in 2016.”
Nevertheless for Democrats, the new voters Sanders has inspired — particularly younger voters and those who feel trapped by a system rigged against them — could be a significant boon to the party, compared to what might have been if he hadn’t run.
The drop in turnout ... under mines a core pitch of his campaign.