THE HORSE RACE
Good luck determining most durable starter among young guns
P ORT ST. LUCIE — Jacob deGrom’s left groin soreness doesn’t appear to be a big deal, yet it does prompt a question:
Who is the Mets’ most durable starting pitcher?
It’s a crapshoot, as evidenced by a quickie, anonymous poll I conducted Tuesday. Eight officials — some from the Mets, some from other National League East teams and some from 2015 playoff teams that extensively scouted these guys — responded to my question, “Who will lead the 2016 Mets in innings pitched?”
One respondent split his vote three ways among deGrom, Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard. That created this final tally: 1. Harvey: 3 ¹/₃ 2. (tie) deGrom and Syndergaard: 2 ¹/₃ Harvey’s slight edge could be attributed to three lines of thinking: 1. A year further removed from Tommy John surgery, and the lifting of all innings limits, will allow him to step up his performance; 2. His salary can go up the most as he approaches his second round of arbitration; and 3. His competitive nature will push him past deGrom and Syndergaard.
The deGrom advocates leaned upon the thirdyear righthander’s track record, while those supporting Syndergaard considered themselves buying into a rising stock as Syndergaard prepares for what should be his first full majorleague season.
Here’s your safest bet: None of these guys will be challenging for the league lead in innings pitched. In light of all of their young pitchers clocking their longest seasons in 2015, the Mets will proceed very cautiously with their top assets. That means the deployment of a sixth starter even before Zack Wheeler returns from Tommy John surgery is likely. Which in turn means none of the Mets pitchers should go dramatically beyond 200 innings in the regular season. Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw paced the National League last year with 232 ²/₃ innings and threw another 13 ²/₃ against the Mets in the NL Division Series.
The only Mets starter on a strict limit is Steven Matz, technically still a rookie, who totaled 155 ²/₃ innings last year in the regular season (35 ²/₃), the postseason (14 ²/₃) and the minor leagues (105 ¹/₃). His peak figures to be 190 innings. Given his history of injuries, the Mets will be thrilled if they have to actually pay attention to his ceiling.
Interestingly, while no one chose veteran Bartolo Colon, one made a point of opining Colon — currently slated to switch to the bullpen when Wheeler gets back midseason — would finish second on the team, behind Syndergaard. Colon led the 2015 Mets with 194 ²/₃ innings in the regular season. Because he switched to the bullpen for the postseason, however, he wound up with 203 ¹ /₃ innings, placing him third behind Harvey and deGrom, each of whom totaled 216 — yes, if Harvey had picked up just one out in the ninth inning of World Series Game 5, he would have passed deGrom for the entirety of the season. Syndergaard tallied 198 ²/₃, including 19 in the minors.
Asked how much his pitchers compete among themselves, manager Terry Collins said, “A lot. More than people think. That’s one of the things why we’ve talked about backing them down in spring training. These guys compete now. They compete in the weight room. They compete in everything. That’s just their nature.
“… Hopefully, they don’t try and outdo each other. They’ve just got to go pitch.”
Nevertheless, it’ll be fun to see who gives the Mets the best workload. If 2016, including October and November, concludes with four Mets starting pitchers again past or near the 200innings mark, then the biggest winner very likely will be the Mets themselves.