DEADLINE DRAMA
These names could make dealings more fun
THE YANKEES must decide in the next five weeks whether to be sellers, a choice that will have an impact on the star power of this trading season. They are not alone. Several clubs also are on the seesaw between contender and not so much, buyer or seller. Which way those clubs sway between now and Aug. 1 will determine the level of sizzle leading to the deadline.
As one general manage r said: “Right now t he market is relatively limited in players available that will make a difference. It is more of a seller’s market. You still have a good number of buyers. Everyone needs pitching except a few teams and there are not a lot of good starters to be had. There could be huge-named relievers out there — but maybe not.”
That is where the Yankees come in — do they dangle Aroldis Chapman and/or Andrew Miller?
For now the market is interesting with Cincinnati’s Jay Bruce, Milwaukee’s Jonathan Lucroy and Ryan Braun, and Oakland’s Danny Valencia. Obviously, it gets more alluring if the Yankees decide to sell big time (also Carlos Beltran, Brett Gardner, Brian McCann, Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Pineda). Here are other keys that could turn this market star-studded:
1 The Pirates make Andrew McCutchen available —
Pittsburgh general manager Neal Huntington gave his diplomatic answer by phone: “That is not on our radar.”
But he is forced to say that. Why alienate a fan base that just will see this as a fire sale rather than logical? Look, no one wants to see McCutchen traded. He has honored everything about being a Pirate — great on the field, a model citizen off it. Ideally, he would be like Roberto Clemente or Willie Stargell, lifetime Pirates who were the face and soul of a champion.
Here in the real world, though, the small-market Pirates always have to balance what is best today with staying competitive long term. They have terrific young corner outfielders (Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco) on team-friendly, long-term deals. Their best position prospect, Austin Meadows, is a center fielder recently promoted to Triple-A after tearing up Double-A.
Most important, a decision day looms with McCutchen. Pittsburgh controls him through a 2018 option, at which point he will be 32. The Pirates just cannot afford to gamble on the kind of secondgeneration extension that is even team friendly — a la David Wright and the Mets — in their market.
McCutchen is in the midst of a down year. So maybe Pittsburgh does not want to sell low. But my guess is that the industry sees him as desirable, and Pittsburgh could get good prospects and the financial flexibility of being free of his contract.
My guess is Pittsburgh tries to get back in the wild-card hunt with McCutchen and more seriously considers a trade this offseason.
2 The Rays make Chris Archer available —
When I spent time with Tampa Bay players and officials in Cuba in late March, they really believed they had added enough offense (Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller, Logan Morrison, Steve Pearce) to capitalize on a strong rotation and contend. But they have spent most of this season behind the Yankees in fifth in the AL East because run scoring has remained a challenge and the starting pitching has been surprisingly poor.
Philosophically, this is an organization that would be open to any kind of deal, even if it were in first place. So the Rays definitely will entertain all comers — even for their version of McCutchen, Evan Longoria. But their most l ike ly place to deal is starters, because the Rays have plenty of inventory. Alex Cobb is due back from Tommy John surgery in the second half. They believe Matt Andriese and Erasmo Ramirez can provide depth, that Blake Snell can be a difference maker and that Austin Pruitt at Triple-A could be a significant contributor, too.
So Tampa Bay can move even two starters from among Drew Smyly, Jake Odorizzi and Matt Moore. That Moore is controlled through 2017 on an option and Smyly (after 2018) and Odorizzi (after 2019) are far from free agency makes them even more attractive. But because there is a bad free-agent starter class nearing, Tampa could
ask for a lot or simply wait to the offseason when even current non-contenders could have interest.
Like Oakland ace Sonny Gray, Archer is having an unexpectedly poor year. But like Gray, who also might be dealt, the price still would be high due to years until free agency and pass accomplishments. Archer still was second in the AL in strikeouts per nine innings (10.6) despite a 4.70 ERA largely fueled by horrible first innings.
My guess is the Rays trade at least one from Moore, Odorizzi and Smyly, and hold out too large a price for Archer.
3 The Blue Jays make Jose Bautista available —
Teams generally do not trade from their major league rosters when contending. But could Toronto be a special case? The Blue Jays have a powerful lineup even without Bautista (currently on the disabled list), in part because of the emergence of Michael Saunders. They h ave no intention of signi ng Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion l ong t erm when they are free agents after this season. They traded a boatload of prospects during last season — particularly to obtain David Price and Troy Tulowitzki — to make the playoffs for the first time since 1993. That was under since-departed GM Alex Anthopoulos. Could the new regime, headed by team president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins, decide the following: The team can make the postseason without Bautista and that his best use is to either restock the system or add a piece (a starter, a reliever, etc.) who could better help the 2016 club? Bautista, 35, had slipped defensively in right and his average was just .230. But he remains a fierce, patient, powerful at-bat who could help a contender at first, the corner outfield or DH — imagine him in left field for the Giants, as an example. My guess is the Blue Jays try to win with Bautista, but they can be tempted to change their minds.