AGENTS OF CHANGE
Here’s a look at the top 15 players — and the deals they can expect to receive — heading into the NBA’s free-agent frenzy:
1a. Kevin Durant
Thunder SF | 28.2 ppg, 8.2 rpg
Teams tried to get on Durant’s meeting list with the same fervor of a pack of wolves going after a T-bone. Durant makes any team legit. The six who are known are the Spurs, Warriors, Clippers, Heat, Celtics and Thunder. Figure he re-ups in OKC, likely short-term and does it all again next year.
Likely terms: 2 years, $26.6M in Year 1 and then opts out
1b. LeBron James
Cavaliers SF |25.3 ppg, 7.4 rpg
What?!? LeBron’s not at the top of a list? That’s only because there is some intrigue around Durant. With the guy most responsible for dethroning the Warriors, what he’s having for dinner is a bigger mystery than where he’ll be next season. Again, think short-term and then seeing him be on the FA list again next summer.
Likely terms: 2 years, $54M and opts out after Year 1
3. Al Horford
Hawks PF | 15.2 ppg, 7.3 rpg
Underpaid in Atlanta, Horford is a valuable commodity with his ability to stretch the floor and be effective inside. The Hawks want to keep him, but the Celtics will pursue and the Blazers make sense. In a perfect Brooklyn world, the Nets — hoping to use the Kenny Atkinson connection — would be in the mix.
Likely terms: Max deal starting at $25M-$26M
4. Andre Drummond
Pistons C | 16.2 ppg, 14.8 rpg
He is restricted so put him back with Detroit, where he can continue to be one of the more dominant centers in the league and worst free-throw shooters on the planet. Likely terms: Max deal starting at $22M
5. DeMar DeRozan
Raptors SG | 23.5 ppg, .446 FG%
With backcourt mate Kyle Lowry, DeRozan helped the Raptors to the Eastern Conference Finals. Raptors must and will keep him. Figure he quickly reaches agreement. Likely terms: Max deal starting at $26M
6. Mike Conley
Grizzlies PG | 15.3 ppg, 6.1 apg
The Grizzlies want to thank the Bulls for shipping Derrick Rose to the Knicks. The Grizz had legit concerns Phil Jackson would offer “crazy money” to Conley. He’ll still get paid and draw interest from the likes of Dallas, but a return to Memphis makes the most sense.
Likely terms: Max deal starting at $26M
7. Hassan Whiteside
Heat C | 14.2 ppg, 11.8 rpg
Gotta love the shot-blocking, rim protector’s take: “I’m a businessman that plays basketball,” he posted. So screw hometown discounts and loyalty. A double-double guy two straight years, although his focus can wander, Whiteside will draw interest from the Lakers, Blazers, Mavs, Celts, Warriors and Heat.
Likely terms: Max deal starting at $26M
8. Bradley Beal
Wizards SG | 17.4 ppg .449 FG%
Health always is a concern, but the Wizards can’t afford to lose him. He won’t come cheap
— but as a restricted free agent figure he stays put and keeps a formidable backcourt in play in Washington with John Wall. And he just turned 23.
Likely terms: Max deal starting at $22M
9. Nicolas Batum
Hornets SF | 14.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg
As one opposing executive said, “They would have to really lowball him to lose him.” The Hornets have said keeping him is their top priority. He likes Charlotte, Charlotte likes him. Seems like a no-brainer.
Likely terms: Max deal starting at $26M
10. Harrison Barnes
Warriors SF | 11.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg
He is another restricted free agent, but it gets tricky. If the Warriors shock the planet and land Durant, then Barnes has to find a new home, with Philadelphia interested. If Durant ends up anywhere else, the Warriors will try to keep the guy who disappeared in the Finals but still is desirable — at a price. The Warriors have to be mindful of not overpaying and ticking off Draymond Green ($15.3 million).
Likely terms: Max deal starting at $20M
11. Dwight Howard
Rockets C | 13.7 ppg, 11.8 rpg
Injuries and age have taken their tolls so he’s not the player he was with the Magic, but Howard still can be a formidable presence. The Celtics and Hawks will take meetings. And no matter where he ends up, figure after three minutes there, he’ll say he never should have left Orlando but wishes he went to Brooklyn.
Likely terms: Multi-year deal starting at $18M
12 . Geezers not going anywhere
We’re lumping Dwyane Wade (Heat, SG, 6-4, 19.0 ppg), Dirk Nowitzki (Mavericks, PF, 7-0, 18.3 ppg) and Tim Duncan (Spurs, C, 6-11, 8.6 ppg). Really, do you see them going anywhere else?
Likely terms: Duncan will make $5.6M, unless he retires; Wade will get $15M-$17M; Nowitzki could take as little as $8M-$10M in the first year of a two-year deal.
13. Pau Gasol
Bulls PF | 16.5 ppg, 11.0 rpg
The Raptors would love to land him on a one-year deal, but this likely is the last contract for Gasol. The Knicks, after landing Rose, could make sense but so do the Spurs, if Duncan chooses to retire — or even if he doesn’t. Likely terms: Depending on where he signs, figure he’ll take $12Min the first year, but could take less to join Spurs
14. Chandler Parsons
Mavericks SF 13.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg
He has good size, is athletic and can shoot it and has a good basketball IQ. He wants a max deal, which might make the Mavs leery. The Lakers and Grizzlies have been mentioned in rumors.
Likely terms: Multi-year deal starting at $20M
15. Bismack Biyombo
Raptors C | 5.5 ppg 8.8 rpg
He became a force in the playoffs for the Raptors, who were ecstatic, but keeping him will be tough unless he wants to rebound for food. With Jonas Valanciunas around, the Raptors may reluctantly let the Warriors or Magic or Clippers grab him, despite his preference to stay in Toronto. Likely terms: Multi-year deal starting at $16M