JUST SIT TIGHT
No need to draft a TE until near end
In these condo fa six-part fantasy football draft preview series, The Post looks at tight ends, defenses/ special teams and kickers. Next week: quarter backs.
DOMINANT forces don’t always stay dominant. Empires fall. Dynasties crumble. To be clear: These aren’t happening at the tight end position yet. You can expect the reign of Rob Gronkowski to continue. But the gap is closing. The revolution is building slowing. And it is not coming from the places you might envision. Many pundits are on the Jordan Reed bandwagon this season to be the nearest challenger to Gronk’s fantasy rule of the tight end position. But the Madman isn’t ready to side with this Gronk usurper just yet. Reed’s spectacular finish in 2015 smells suspiciously like other abbreviated runs of players at various positions that create unfulfilled hype (Jordan Cameron coming off a strong 2013 season comes to mind). This isn’t a judgment based solely on Reed — who, by the way, has missed 14 games over his first three seasons. It also has to do with reservations with his quarterback, Kirk “You Like That” Cousins. Granted, we think Reed will be a solid TE option, just not worthy of his 12-team, standard-league average draft position (ADP) of 43.1, though it is less distasteful than Gronk’s ADP of 12.9. The TE revolt that interests us is hidden in smaller factions. It goes beyond the consistency of Greg Olsen (49.9 ADP), or the evolution of Travis Kelce (70.2), or the Titans’ offensive dependency on
Delanie Walker (69.7 ADP), or the opportunistic landing spot of Coby
Fleener (77.4) in New Orleans. Before you buy campaign buttons for those TE candidates, realize the position has grown deeper this year. There are more options late in the draft who allow you to bypass overspending early. You can look even deeper, down in the draft, for fantasy hopefuls who could be in line for a groundswell of production.
Many are overlooking last season’s breakout Cleveland’s TE, Gary
Barnidge (87.5). Even with Robert Griffin III as his QB, Barnidge should post numbers warranting a midround selection. But let’s go even deeper.
The Madman’s write-in candidate for this year’s breakout TE campaign is Chicago’s Zach Miller (157.1). In minimal action last season — playing behind Martellus Bennett, who has since defected to New England — Miller showed big-play potential and great hands. On an offense that may struggle to run the ball (spoiler alert for coming weeks: the Madman does not like Jeremy Langford), Miller should provide a solid outlet on a squad that has receivers Alshon Jeffery and redshirt-rookie Kevin White to lure away defensive attention.
But we’re not done. Don’t overlook Dwayne Allen (143.3), who no longer has to compete with Fleener for playing time and targets. Anto
nio Gates (138.9) may take the field using a walker, but he still produces at a level easily worthy of his draft position. Julius Thomas ( 135.5) should outperform a moderate season last year — which did include a run of four straight weeks with TDs.
Zach Ertz (110.1) has burned us before, but maybe this is his year. At his affordable draft spot, it’s worth the risk. Don’t expect Jordan
Cameron (186.6) to duplicate his 2013 success, but marked improvement under new coach Adam Gase makes Cameron a worthy risk l at e. And Ja r ed Cook (195.4) has landed in a dream scenario with the potent Packers offense.
Alas, not all is good news. Eric Ebron (162.3) was carted off the field Saturday. The danger of a significant injury — like an Achilles issue, as some have speculated — is enough to remove him from draft boards until we learn otherwise.
Tyler Eifert (77.6) is dealing with an ankle injury that could force him to miss the start of the season. Plus, he caught 13 TDs last season on just 72 targets — meaning you can expect a dramatic increase in TDs this season. Jimmy Graham (109.6) scored exactly zero TDs from Weeks 3-12, before being sidelined with a knee injury — and that included time in which Marshawn Lynch was out. So despite Lynch’s retirement, once Graham gets on the field, there is no reason to think his role in the offense will increase dramatically.
So the lesson here, gang, is this: Sit tight before drafting a tight end. There will be viable options late in the draft.