Betting on ‘Mr. Brexit’
Why Brit PM is glad to see O go
BRITISH Prime Minister Theresa May hopes to model her relationship with Presidentelect Donald Trump on the storied Anglo-partnerships of Churchill-Roosevelt and MaggieRonnie. Trump should return the love.
May wants — needs — a major ally after her countrymen voted last summer to exit the European Union (propelling her to Britain’s top job in the process). Now comes the hard part: arranging a smooth (or as smooth as possible) Brexit. Getting the American president on her side is a good way to do it.
May plans to set the terms of Britain’s divorce from Brussels by March. And the faster that date approaches, the louder and harsher her critics get.
This week the British ambassador to the EU, Ivan Rogers, resigned his post, firing off a missive criticizing the Brexiteers’ “illfounded arguments.” He also said, ominously, that unlike EU bureaucrats, Britain’s trade reps lack “se- rious multilateral negotiating experience.”
Not to be outdone, the Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg added that in multilateral talks with the British, “their speed is limited by the fact that it is such a long time since they have negotiated.” (That is: Britain got lazy, relying on Brussels to advance its trade deals.)
In other words, Brussels is still smarting from Britain’s diss, and London’s own pro-EU types are repeating the doom-and-gloom predictions they made during their anti-Brexit campaign.
The failure to stop Britain’s exit was memorably boosted by President Obama, who flew over to London to warn that Britain will be pushed to the “back of the queue” of US trade deals if it exits the European Union.
Trump took the opposite approach. From his posh Scottish golf facility, he praised the British voters, seeing their populist victory as an omen of his own that November. He took to calling himself America’s “Mr. Brexit.” Critics scoffed, but that’s just what May’s government needs right now. So she’s buttering up the incoming leader of the free world.
For example: In a December swan song, Secretary of State John Kerry doubled down on Obama’s decision to join the anti-Israel UN crowd with a follow-up speech decrying Israel’s “most right wing government.” May then jumped to Israel’s defense, saying in a statement, “We do not believe that it is appropriate to attack the composition of the democratically elected government of an ally.”
Wait, what? British diplomats were instrumental in pushing the UN Security Council resolution that Kerry was defending. So why is their prime minister now dumping on Obama’s top diplomat?
It’s all about Brexit, those familiar with the thinking in London tell me.
As relations with the continent cool off, they explain, Britain needs to forge a strong alliance with the United States (as well as other traditional allies, from Australia to India). Kerry is the past. Trump, who has strongly criticized Obama’s diplomatic attack on Israel, is the future. May isn’t looking back. Trump should certainly announce early on that the special relationship with Britain is back on. It was rudely interrupted in Obama’s early days, when a Churchill bust, a British gift proudly displayed in the White House, was unceremoniously returned to London.
And never mind the critics. British officials are in fact quite good at diplomacy, and they have a lot of experience in steering world affairs. And, again flying in the face of Brexit opponents, London’s economy has thrived since the decision to cut ties with the European Union. So there’s an opportunity here. Iran is one example: The Brits pretty much own the insurance business that’s necessary to ship goods around. Alongside America’s currency dominance, the two countries can squeeze Iran’s economy plenty on their own.
May and Trump are likely to soon agree that Tehran is violating the nuclear deal, or that its expansionist policies have gotten too disruptive for the region. If so, the two countries can, without other Europeans or the United Nations, reverse Obama’s favors to Iran and his preference of the mullahs over traditional Mideast allies.
So yes, it could be that trade considerations alone are behind May’s warming up to Trump. Or maybe there’s nostalgia, on either end of the pond, for a glorious past. Either way, both sides will be happy resuming a beautiful friendship.