LAM-BLUE FIELD DAY
THE NFL is saving the best wild-card playoff game for last this weekend, but here, it comes first. Giants-Packers. Sunday early evening, Lambeau Field. Single-digit temperatures by game’s end. It doesn’t get much better than this.
The temptation here is to focus on half of the game — the Packers’ nuclear offense versus the Giants’ physical and ball-hawking defense. And yes it will be intriguing to see if the Giants’ pass rush can catch and corral Aaron Rodgers, whether run-stuffers Damon Harrison and Olivier Vernon can contain Ty Montgomery — who looks odd as a running back wearing No. 88, but is averaging almost 6 yards per carry — and most importantly whether the NYPD (New York Pass Defense) secondary can keep tabs on Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb.
In the Packers’ “run the table” six-game winning streak that took them from 4-6 to the NFC North title, Rodgers threw 15 touchdown passes and no interceptions. He completed 142 of 200 passes, which is an average of just less than 10 incomplete passes per game.
Compare that with the Oct. 8, 23-16 home win against the Giants, when Rodgers misfired on 22 passes (he completed 23-of-45) and threw two interceptions to Janoris Jenkins. That was even before the Giants defense turned into a dominant unit in the second half of the season.
Though that’s the featured matchup, the game could be decided by the Giants offense versus the Packers defense. Just because the Giants haven’t had a lot of success on offense doesn’t mean they can’t. Not when they have a two-time Super Bowl MVP at quarterback and a receiver who can take any given play all the way. Green Bay is very thin at cornerback after having three go down in the finale against the Lions. If suspect left tackle Ereck Flowers can keep Eli Manning’s back clean, Manning will be able to move the chains and keep Rodgers bundled up on the sideline.
The Giants have done it before in the
playoffs at Lambeau — twice — and have a great shot to do it again. The picks: Giants +4¹/2 and Under 44¹/2 . Giants 21, Packers 20
Dolphins (+10) over STEELERS; Under 451/2: The Dolphins won the regular-season meeting in Miami, 30-15, on Oct. 16, as Jay Ajayi burst onto the scene with the first of his three 200-plus-yard rushing performances. That’s a reason to not let the weather — high of 20 and a snow shower are forecast on Sunday afternoon — to scare you off the warmweather team. If they can keep running the ball like that, they can stay in the game.
Matt Moore has gone 2-1 in place of Ryan Tannehill, putting up 34 points apiece in cold-weather wins at the Jets and Bills before a dud at home against the Patriots last week.
In Miami, Ben Roethlisberger suffered a knee injury that required surgery, but remarkably kept him out only one series. The Steelers finished the season on a seven-game winning streak, but the last four wins were by seven, four, four and three (in overtime) points. Steelers 24, Dolphins 16 SATURDAY Raiders (+31/2) over TEXANS: Over 361/2: These are not the same Raiders who were cruising in the fast lane with Derek Carr and challenging the Patriots for the top seed in the AFC just two weeks ago. That team and that vibe went away when Carr broke his leg in two places. Matt McGloin then got hurt so now they’re down to fourth-round pick Connor Cook.
But even though the Raiders couldn’t manage an immediate circling of the wagons last week and lost in Denver to fall into this game, there’s still plenty there — from Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree and a trio of useful running backs to help Cook, to sack artist Khalil Mack and a defense that had 30 takeaways. In fact, the key stat here is the Raiders’ 16 interceptions up against Brock Osweiler’s 16 interceptions. That’s a combustible mix, one that Texans coach Bill O’Brien was hoping to avoid.
So, count us in for a bit of a Raiders revival,
and an Over because turnovers could lead to some points and both O’Brien and Oakland coach Jack Del Rio will try to get creative. Raiders 22, Texans 17
SEAHAWKS (-8) over Lions; Over 43: This one is tricky because it’s a lot of points to give Matthew Stafford, and the Seahawks were wildly inconsistent even before losing safety Earl Thomas and receiver Tyler Lockett.
But the Lions could be just about done now that they blew their chance at a division title with a home loss to the Packers, and that they’ve given up 73 points in the last two games after having a streak of six games allowing under 20.
The terrible Seattle weather — low 30s with some freezing rain and snow — won’t feel good on Stafford’s damaged finger, and the Seahawks will be not be surprised of Zach Zenner. Seahawks 30, Lions 17 LAST WEEK: 10-6 Overall, 2-1 Best Bets LOCK OF THE WEEK: Giants (Locks 7-10 in 2016)